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Empirica

, Volume 13, Issue 2, pp 173–186 | Cite as

Macroeconomic forecasting in Austria an agnostic viewpoint

  • Gerhard Thury
Article

Keywords

Economic Growth International Economic Industrial Organization Exponential Smoothing Macroeconomic Forecast 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Zusammenfassung

In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird ein relativ einfaches Prognoseverfahren, nämlich Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing, zur Vorhersage wichtiger makroökonomischer Größen, wie des Brutto-Inlandsproduktes und seiner Verwendungskomponenten, der Verbraucherpreise und der Arbeitslosenrate herangezogen. Es zeigt sich dabei, daß diese Technik —mit Ausnahme der Investitions- und Verbraucherpreisprognose — Vorhersagen liefert, die denen des WIFO mindestens gleichwertig sind.

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Copyright information

© Gustav Fischer 1986

Authors and Affiliations

  • Gerhard Thury
    • 1
  1. 1.Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung ArsenalWien

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