Summary
In this paper wage and price equations for austria are presented. Estimations were performed with yearly and quarterly data for the period 1959 to 1973.
Emphasis is centered on the wage equation. A simple, nonlinear Phillips curve explains wage increases quite satisfactorily even though the rate of inflation has accelerated since 1968. Comparisons with earlier estimates of Phillips curves are performed. They exhibit a rather stable relation between unemployment and wage increases.
Alternative wage specifications using prices and productivity yield good results only in explanning long term wage behavior: real wages and productivity increase by the same rate in the long run average. Prices and productivity terms used as explanatory variables in yearly or quarterly equations perform less satisfactorily than the Phillips curve, indicating less explanatory power for short run fluctuations of wages.
The price equations follow the commonly accepted specification with cost, demand and exogenous variables. The results indicate that the average level of inflation might be cost determined and that the deviation could be due to demand pressure and exogenous price variations (import prices and prices of agricultural goods are treated as exogenous).
Zusammenfassung
Die empirischen Ergebnisse lassen eine Dreiteilung der Inflationsursachen in Österreich in:
-
1.
Kosteninflation,
-
2.
Nachfrageinflation,
-
3.
“Exogene” Inflation,
vermuten. Der Beitrag der monetären Größen zu den Preissteigerungen dürfte sowohl in der Nachfrageinflation als auch in der Kosteninflation zu suchen sein.
Die Grenzen zwischen Nachfrage- und Kosteninflation sind jedoch sehr fließend, da es z. B. eine Streitfrage sein kann, ob man eine Preissteigerung auf Grund einer durch eine sehr starke Nachfrage am Arbeitsmarkt ausgelöste Lohnsteigerung eher als Kosten- oder als Nachfrageinflation betrachten soll. Diese Grenzen zu ziehen bzw. den Einfluß der Geldpolitik zu identifizieren, wäre die Aufgabe eines Gesamtmodelles.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Literaturverzeichnis
S. Almon: The Distributed Lag Between Capital Appropriations and Expenditures, Econometrica, January 1965.
R. J. Bhatia Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money-Earnings in the United States 1900–1958, Economica, 1961.
R. J. Bhatia Profits and the Rate of Change in Money Earnings in the United States, 1935 to 1959. Economica, August 1962.
B. E. Caulcott Significance Tests, London and Boston 1973.
O. Eckstein & G. Fromm The Price Equation, American Economic Review, December 1968.
O. Eckstein & T. A. Wilson The Determinants of Money Wages in American Industry, The Quarterly Journal of Conomics, 1962.
O. Eckstein (ed.) The Econometrics of Price Determination Conference, Washington, October 1970.
H. Frisch Die Inflation, der Gegenwart und ihre Ursachen, Wien 1973.
R. J. Gordon The Recent Acceleration of Inflation and Its Lessons for the Future, The Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1970/1.
R. J. Gordon Inflation in Recession and Recovery, The Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1971/1.
B. Hansen Excess Demand, Unemployment, Vacancies and Wages, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 1970.
N. Kaldor Economic Growth and the Problem of Inflation, Economica, August and November 1959.
R. G. Lipsey The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom 1862–1957: A Further Analysis, Economica, February 1960.
R. G. Lipsey The Micro Theory of the Phillips Curve Reconsidered, Economica, February 1974.
E. Malinvaud Statistical Methods of Econometrics, Amsterdam—London 1970.
H. Maneval Die Phillips-Kurve, Tübingen 1973.
W. D. Nordhaus The Worldwide Wage-Explosion The Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1972/2.
E. Nowotny, K. W. Rothschild, G. Schwödiauer Bestimmungsgründe der Lohnbewegung, Wien 1972.
OECD Inflation—The Present Problem, Paris, December 1970.
G. L. Perry The Determinants of Wage Rate Changes and the Inflation-Unemployment Trade-off for the United States, The Review of Economic Studies, October 1964.
G. L. Perry Unemployment, Money Wage Rates and Inflation, Cambridge 1966.
G. L. Perry Changing Labour Markets and Inflation, The Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1970/3.
A. W. Phillips The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom 1861–1957, Economica, November 1958.
H. J. Ramser Inflation und Beschäftigung: Der Beitrag der Phillips-Kurve, Kyklos, 1970/3.
P. Richter Ökonometrische Untersuchungen zum Inflationsproblem unter besonderer Berücksichtigung von Deutschland und Österreich, Stuttgart 1967.
T. J. Sargent A Note on the “Accelerationist” Controversy, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, August 1971.
F. Schebeck & H. Suppanz Ökonometrische Inflationsanalyse für Österreich 1960 bis 1975, Empirica, 1974/2.
K. Schloenbach Ökonometrische Analyse der Lohn- und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Meisenheim am Glan 1972.
N. J. Simler & A. Tella Labour Reserves and the Phillips-Curve, Review of Economic Studies, February 1968.
R. M. Solow Price Expectations and the Behavior of the Price Level, Manchester 1969.
H. Suppanz Die Lohndrift in Österreich, Monatsberichte des Österreichischen Institutes für Wirtschaftsforschung, Juli 1972.
S. J. Turnovsky Inflationary Expectations in a Macro-Economic Model, Economic Journal, June 1974.
P. Zahn Die Phillips-Relation für Deutschland. Berlin 1973.
Additional information
Die Arbeit an diesem Problemkreis wurde im Rahmen einer Diplomarbeit des Autors bei Herrn Prof. Dr.H. Frisch 1972/73 begonnen. Für die sorgfältige Durchsicht der vorliegenden Fassung ist der Autor Herrn Prof. Dr.E. Streissler zu Dank verpflichtet.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Wörgötter, A. Lohn- und Preisgleichungen für Österreich. Empirica 2, 57–77 (1975). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00924907
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00924907