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Time-series analysis in cyclic stratigraphy: An example from the Cretaceous of the Southern Alps, Italy

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Abstract

The importance of time-series analysis in cyclic stratigraphy is evaluated by comparing three different methods (adaptive multiple taper spectral analysis, auto-/cross-correlation analysis, cova functions) applied to stratigraphic time series from the Early Cretaceous Cismon section in northern Italy. Carbonate content and magnetic susceptibility vary in a quasi-cyclic fashion in this pelagic limestone section and are almost perfectly negatively correlated. The spectral technique requires a high degree of preprocessing of the original data (interpolation and resampling at a regular interval, filtering, inversion) which introduces smoothing and rounding errors. The statistical correlation analysis also requires evenly and (for cross-correlation) correspondingly spaced series. The geostatistical cova functions (a generalization of the cross-variogram) prove to be the most versatile and robust of the methods compared. Cova functions can be calculated from unevenly and noncor-respondingly spaced time series without any preprocessing. This method also retains relatively more of the signal if noise and extreme outliers obscure the picture. The periodicities detected in the Cismon time series fall in the range of Milankovitch cycles. Cycle periods of 45 cm and 80 cm likely correspond to dominant precession and obliquity cycles. Due to the inaccuracy of the Cretaceous time scale periods cannot be matched exactly yet, but cycle ratios are close to expected ratios so that there is great potential for future cyclostratigraphic work to contribute to a substantial improvement of the geologic time scale.

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Mayer, H. Time-series analysis in cyclic stratigraphy: An example from the Cretaceous of the Southern Alps, Italy. Math Geol 25, 975–1001 (1993). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00891055

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