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Mathematical Geology

, Volume 20, Issue 5, pp 529–542 | Cite as

A temporal model for landslide risk based on historical precipitation

  • Stanley M. Miller
Articles

Abstract

Of the recognized nonsteady-state factors that influence slope stability, probably most critical in many field situations is the character of precipitation and infiltration activity. A groundwater response model used in conjunction with precipitation records can provide a historical catalog of estimated maximum groundwater levels in a particular study area. An extreme-value statistical analysis of this catalog is linked with geotechnical slope stability analyses to provide a landslide hazard model for estimating the probability of slope failure within a given time. This modeling approach can provide meaningful input to risk assessments for landslide mitigation programs and to decision analyses and cost-benefit studies important for land-use planning and resource management.

Key words

slope stability landslide hazards extreme-value statistics Monte Carlo simulation 

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Copyright information

© International Association for Mathematical Geology 1988

Authors and Affiliations

  • Stanley M. Miller
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Geology and Geological EngineeringUniversity of IdahoMoscow

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