Abstract
Water-level fluctuations in closed-basin lakes can be used to reconstruct past hydrological changes, and the recognition of spatially coherent patterns in lake behavior provides evidence for changes in climate. The geological records of water level in many lakes, particularly those in arid regions, are by nature incomplete. The fragmentary nature of the data poses special problems for comparison of records and identification of regions where lakes behave similarly. An unconventional method of assessing similarity in the behavior of lakes is used with multidimensional scaling to place lakes in a low-dimensional space. Weights are used to reflect the amount of information available for each particular comparison. The similarity measure is based on evidence for changes in lake depth between successive time intervals and on independent evidence for the direction of change at any given time. Groups (clusters) of lakes in the low-dimensional space are identified by mutual proximity. The method was applied to a set of 65 Late Quaternary lake-level records from North America. About one-third of the lakes had too little weight to be placeable, about one-third were in clusters, and about one-third showed unique behavior. Those lakes which clustered showed four distinct types of record, characteristic of well-defined geographic regions. This ability to distinguish spatially coherent patterns on internal evidence alone strengthens the basis for using lake-level records for regional palaeoclimatic reconstructions.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bartlein, P. J., Webb, T. III, and Fleri, E., 1984, Holocene Climatic Change in the Northern Midwest: Pollen-Derived Estimates: Quat. Res., v. 22, p. 361–374.
Harrison, S. P. and Metcalfe, S. E., 1985a, Spatial Variations in Lake Levels Since the Last Glacial Maximum in the Americas North of the Equator: Z. Gletscherk. Glazialgeol. v. 21, p. 1–15.
Harrison, S. P. and Metcalfe, S. E., 1985b, Variations in Lake Levels During the Holocene in North America: An Indicator of Changes in Atmospheric Circulation Patterns: Geograph. Phys. Quat., v. 39, p. 141–150.
Harrison, S. P.; Metcalfe, S. E.; Pittock, A. B.; Roberts, C. N.; Salinger, N. J.; and Street-Perrott, F. A., 1984, A Climatic Model of the Last Glacial/Interglacial Transition Based on Palaeotemperature and Palaeohydrological Evidence,in Vogel, J. C. (Ed.), Late Cainozoic Palaeoclimates of the Southern Hemisphere, SASQUA, 1983; Balkema, Rotterdam, p. 21–34.
Kruskal, J. B., 1964a, Multidimensional Scaling by Optimising Goodness of Fit to a Nonmetric Hypothesis: Psychometrika, v. 29, p. 1–27.
Kruskal, J. B., 1964b, Nonmetric Multidimensional Scaling: A Numerical Method: Psychometrika, v. 29, p. 115–129.
Kruskal, J. B. and Wish, M., 1978. Multidimensional Scaling: Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences 11: Sage Publications, Beverly Hills, 93 p.
Kutzbach, J. E. and Guetter, P. J., 1986, The Influence of Changing Orbital Parameters and Surface Boundary Conditions on Climate Simulations for the Past 18,000 Years: J. Atmos. Sci., v. 43, p. 1726–1759.
Ritchie, J. C. and Harrison, S. P., in press, Western Canada—Pollen and Lake Level Data,in Cohmap Members (Eds.), Global Climates for 9000 and 6000 Years Ago in the Perspective of Glacial/Interglacial Climatic Change: University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis.
Sibson, R., 1972, Order Invariant Methods for Data Analysis: Jour. Roy. Stat. Soc. B, v. 34, p. 311–349.
Skellam, J. G., 1972, Some Philosophical Aspects of Mathematical Modelling in Empirical Science with Special Reference to Ecology,in Jeffers, J. N. R. (Ed.), Mathematical Models in Ecology: Blackwell Scientific Publications, Oxford, p. 13–28.
Smith, G. I. and Street-Perrott, F. A., 1983, Pluvial Lakes of the Western United States,in Porter, S. C. (Ed.), Late Quaternary Environments of the United States, Vol. 1, The Late Pleistocene: University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, p. 190–212.
Street, F. A. and Grove, A. T., 1976, Environmental and Climatic Implications of Late Quaternary Lake-Level Fluctuations in Africa: Nature, v. 261, p. 385–390.
Street, F. A. and Grove, A. T., 1979, Global Maps of Lake-Level Fluctuations Since 30,000 BP: Quat. Res., v. 12, p. 83–118.
Street-Perrott, F. A. and Harrison, S. P., 1984, Temporal Variations in Lake Levels since 30,000 yr BP—An Index of the Global Hydrological Cycle,in Hansen, J. E. and Takahashi, T. (Eds.), Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity: American Geophysical Union, Geophysical Monograph 29, Maurice Ewing Series, v. 5, p. 118–129.
Street-Perrott, F. A. and Harrison, S. P., 1985, Lake Levels and Climate Reconstruction,in Hecht, A. D. (Ed.), Paleoclimate Analysis and Modeling: John Wiley & Sons, New York, p. 291–340.
Street-Perrott, F. A. and Roberts, N., 1983, Fluctuations in Closed Lakes as an Indicator of Past Atmospheric Circulation Patterns:in Street-Perrott, F. A.: Beran, M.; and Ratcliffe, R. A. S. (Eds.), Variations in the Global Water Budget: D. Reidel, Dordrecht, p. 331–345.
Street-Perrott, F. A.; Roberts, N.; and Metcalfe, S., 1985, Geomorphic implications of late Quaternary hydrological and climatic changes in the Northern Hemisphere tropics,in Douglas, I. and Spencer, T. (Eds.), Geomorphology and Environmental Change in Tropical Latitudes: George Allen and Unwin, London, p. 165–183.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Harrison, S.P., Clymo, R.S. & Southall, H. Order amid sparse data: Patterns of lake level changes in North America during the Late Quaternary. Math Geol 20, 167–188 (1988). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00890252
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00890252