Abstract
A survey was conducted among the pastoral Twareg of Niger on their perceptions of rainfall impacts for each year from 1947 through 1988. The herders saw drought as a prolonged process with a multi-year onset that culminated in a single year of extreme crisis and abated gradually. The identified crisis years, 1973 and 1984, corresponded with historical rainfall data that showed each of these to have been the second consecutive year of extreme drought. Single years of drought, which may have served as red-flag signals of impending crisis scenarios, were not identified by the herders. Rainfall measurements from the zone of extensive cultivation, south of the pastoral habitat, did not correlate well with key crisis years or the herders' perceptions. Neither did national-level livestock market statistics. It was concluded that rainfall was a reliable indicator for a drought early warning system for the northern Sahel, provided that the measurements were taken from an ecologically-defined pastoral habitat.
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This paper was written while the author was a research affiliate at the University of Florida Center for African Studies.