Abstract
The relationship between the monsoon rainfall throughout all India, northwest India and peninsular India as well as the onset dates of the monsoon and two indices of southern oscillation (SOI), namely Isla de Pascua minus Darwin (I-D) and Tahiti minus Darwin (T-D) pressure anomaly have been studied for different periods. The study indicates that the monsoon rainfall shows a strong and significant direct relationship with SOI for the concurrent, succeeding autumn and succeeding winter seasons. The magnitude of the direct correlation coefficient for the SOI using (I-D) is enhanced over all India and peninsular India if the above seasons happen to be associated with an easterly phase of the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) at 50 mb. The result indicates that the strength of the monsoon plays an important role in the following southern oscillation events in the Pacific Ocean. The premonsoon tendency of the SOI anomaly spring minus winter SOI shows a significant positive correlation with monsoon rainfall over all India, northwest India and peninsular India. The absolute value of the positive correlation coefficient becomes highly enhanced over all India, northwest India as well as peninsular India if the 6-month period from December to March is associated with the westerly phase of the QBO. Hence, the premonsoon SOI tendency parameter can be a useful predictor of Indian monsoon rainfall especially if it happens to be associated with the westerly QBO. Significant negative association is also found between the anomaly of monsoon onset dates and SOI of the previous spring season, the absolute value being higher for SOI (T-D) than for SOI (I-D). The negative correlation coefficient becomes enhanced if the previous springs are associated with a westerly phase of the QBO. It shows that the previous spring SOI has some predictive value for the onset date of Indian monsoon, a positive SOI followed by an early onset of monsoon, andvice versa, especially if it is associated with a westerly phase of the QBO.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Angell, J. K. (1981),Comparison of Variations in Atmospheric Quantities with Sea-surface Temperature Variations in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific, Mon. Weather Rev.109, 230–243.
Berlage, H. P. (1966),The Southern Oscillation and World Weather, Mededel. Verhandel.88, Kon. Ned. Meteor. Inst., 152 pp.
Chen, W. Y. (1982),Assessment of Southern Oscillation Sea Pressure Indices, Mon. Weather Rev.110, 800–807.
Eliott, W. P., andAngell, J. K. (1987),The Relation between Indian Monsoon Rainfall, the Southern Oscillation and Hemispheric Air and Sea Temperature: 1884–1984, J. Clim. Appl. Met.26, 943–948.
Enfield, D. B. (1989),El Niño, Past and Present, Rev. of Geophys.27, 159–187.
Labitzke, K., andVan Loon, H. (1990),Association between the 11-year Solar Cycle, the Quasi-biennial Oscillation and the Atmosphere: A Summary of Recent Work, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. A330, 577–589.
Naujokat, B. (1986),An Update of the Observed Quasi-biennial Oscillation of the Stratospheric Winds over the Tropics, J. Atm. Sci.43 (17), 1873–1877.
Normand, C. (1953),Monsoon Seasonal Forecasting, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.79, 463–473.
Pant, G. B., andParthasarathy, B. (1981),Some Aspects of an Association between the Southern Oscillation and Indian Summer Monsoon, Arch. Meteor. Geophys. Biokl. B29, 245–252.
Parthasarathy, B., andPant, G. B. (1984),The Spatial and Temporal Relationships between the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and the Southern Oscillation, Tellus36A, 269–277.
Parthasarathy, B., Sontakke, N. A., Munot, A. A., andKothawal, D. R. (1990),Vagaries of Indian Monsoon Rainfall and its Relationship with Regional/Global Circulations, Mausam41 (2), 301–308.
Quinn, W. H., andBurt, W. V. (1972),Use of the Southern Oscillation in Weather Prediction, J. App. Met.11, 616–628.
Rasmusson, E. M., andCarpenter, T. H. (1982),Variations in Tropical Sea-surface Temperature and Surface Wind Fields Associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño, Mon. Weather Rev.110, 354–384.
Shukla, J., andPaolino, D. A. (1983),The Southern Oscillation and Long-range Forecasting of Summer Monsoon Rainfall over India, Mon. Weather Rev.111, 1830–1837.
Trenberth, K. E. (1976),Spatial and Temporal Variations of the Southern Oscillation, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.102, 639–653.
Troup, A. J. (1965),The Southern Oscillation, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.91, 490–506.
Walker, G. T. (1924),Correlation in Seasonal Variation of Weather, IX Mem. Ind. Meteor. Dept.24, 275–332.
Walker, G. T. (1928),World Weather III, Mem. R. Meteor. Soc.2, 97–106.
Walker, G. T., andBliss, E. W. (1932),World Weather V, Mem. Roy. Meteor. Soc.4, 53–84.
Wright, P. B.,An Index of the Southern Oscillation (Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, England 1975), 22 pp.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Chattopadhyay, J., Bhatla, R. Influence of southern oscillation index on the variability and predictability of Indian monsoon. A reappraisal. PAGEOPH 141, 177–188 (1993). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00876242
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00876242