Knowledge-based risk assessment and cost estimation
- 93 Downloads
A knowledge-based method for software project risk assessment and cost estimation has been implemented on multiple platforms. As an extension to the Constructive Cost Model (COCOMO), it aids in project planning by identifying, categorizing, quantifying and prioritizing project risks. It also detects cost estimate input anomalies and provides risk control advice in addition to conventional COCOMO cost and schedule calculation.
The method has been developed in conjunction with a system dynamics model of the software development process, and serves as an intelligent front end to the simulation model. It extends previous research in the knowledge-based cost estimation domain by focusing on risk assessment, incorporating substantially more rules, going beyond standard COCOMO, performing quantitative validation, providing a user-friendly interface, and integrating it with a dynamic simulation model.
Results of the validation are promising, and the method is being used at Litton Data Systems and other industrial environments. It will be undergoing further enhancement as part of an integrated capability for software engineering to assist in system acquisition, project planning and risk management.
Keywordssoftware cost estimation software risk management knowledge-based software engineering COCOMO
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
- Boehm, B. 1981.Software Engineering Economics. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
- Boehm, B. 1989.Software Risk Management. Washington, D.C.: IEEE-CS Press.Google Scholar
- Boehm, B. 1992.Knowledge-based process assistance for large software projects, white paper in response to Rome Laboratories PRDS #92-08-PKRD, USC.Google Scholar
- Boehm, B., Bose, P., Horowitz, E., Scacchi, W., et al. 1993. Next generation process models and their environment support.Proceedings of the USC Center for Software Engineering Convocation, USC.Google Scholar
- Boehm, B., and Clark, B., Horowitz, E., Westland, C., Madachy, R., and Selby, R. 1995.Cost models for future software life cycle processes: COCOMO 2.0, to appear in Annals of Software Engineering Special Volume on Software Process and Product Measurement, J.D. Arthur and S.M. Henry (Eds.), J.C. Baltzer AG, Science Publishers, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.Google Scholar
- Boehm, B. Royce, W. 1989. Ada COCOMO and the Ada process model.Proceedings, Fifth COCOMO Users' Group Meeting, SEI.Google Scholar
- Boehm, B. and Bose P. 1994. Critical success factors for knowledge-based software engineering applications.Proceedings of the Ninth Knowledge-Based Software Engineering Conference, Monterey, CA: IEEE Computer Society Press.Google Scholar
- Carr, M., Konda, S., Monarch, I., Ulrich, F., and Walker, C. 1993.Taxonomy-Based Risk Identification. Technical Report CMU/SEI-93-TR-06, Software Engineering Institute.Google Scholar
- Charette, R. 1989.Software Engineering Risk Analysis and Management. Intertext Publications/Multiscience Press and McGraw-Hill, New York, NY.Google Scholar
- Conte, S., Dunsmore, H., and Shen, V. 1986.Software Engineering Metrics and Models. Menlo Park, CA: Benjamin/Cummings Publishing Co., Inc.Google Scholar
- Day, V. 1987. Expert System Cost Model (ESCOMO) Prototype.Proceedings, Third Annual COCOMO Users' Group Meeting, SEI.Google Scholar
- Green, C., Luckham, D., Balzer, R., Cheatham, T., and Rich, C. 1983.Report on a Knowledge-Based Software Assistant. Kestrel Institute, RADC#TR83-195, Rome Air Development Center, NY.Google Scholar
- Madachy, R. 1994.A software project dynamics model for process cost, schedule and risk assessment. Ph.D. Dissertation, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, USC.Google Scholar
- Rook, P. 1993. Cost estimation and risk management tutorial.Proceedings of the Eighth International Forum on COCOMO and Software Cost Modeling, SEI, Pittsburgh, PA.Google Scholar
- Royce, W. 1990.TRW's Ada process model for incremental development of large software systems. TRW-TS-90-01, TRW, Redondo Beach, CA.Google Scholar
- Sabo, J. 1993.Process model advisor. CSCI 577A class project, University of Southern California.Google Scholar
- Toth, G. 1994. Software technology risk advisor.Proceedings of the Ninth Knowledge-Based Software Engineering Conference, Monterey, CA: IEEE Computer Society Press.Google Scholar