Abstract
This paper examines two models used in survey research to explain voting behavior. Although the models rely on the same data they make radically different predictions about the political future. Nevertheless, both models may be more or less correct. The models represent interacting systems and it may be impossible to get a “super model” of the interactions between their elements. In the natural sciences causal relationships between the elements of interacting models can often be ignored. Because voting behavior models describe phenomena that are roughly the same size, the reciprocal relationships between elements of different models severely restrict the predictive power of voting behavior models. Certain analogies, and disanalogies, between the use of models in natural and social science explain why the social sciences cannot predict many of the events they are able to explain.
References
Asher, H.: 1976,Causal Modeling, Sage Publications, California.
Asher, H.: 1983, ‘Voting Behavior Research in the 1980s: An Examination of Some Old and New Problems’, in Ada W. Finifter (ed.),Political Science: The State of the Discipline, The American Political Science Association, Washington, pp. 339–88.
Bellucci, P.: 1984, ‘Economic Concerns in Italian Electoral Behavior: Toward a Rational Electorate?’,Political Behavior 6, 321–31.
Blaug, Mark: 1984, ‘Paradigms Versus Research Programmes in the History of Economics’, in Daniel M. Hausman (ed.),The Philosophy of Economics: An Anthology, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 360–88.
Budge, I., I. Crewe and D. Farlie (eds.): 1976,Party Identification and Beyond, John Wiley, New York.
Burnham, W. D.: 1970,Critical Elections and the Mainstream of American Politics, W. W Norton, New York.
Burnham, W. D.: 1974a, ‘Theory and Voting Results: Some Reflections on Converse's ‘Change in the American Electorate”,American Political Science Review 68, 1002–23.
Burnham, W. D.: 1974b, ‘Rejoinder to ‘Comments’ by Philip Converse and Jerrold Rusk’,American Political Science Review 68, 1050–57.
Burnham, W. D.: 1982,The Current Crisis in American Politics, Oxford University Press, New York.
Burnham, W. D.: 1984, ‘The Eclipse of the Democratic Party’,Society 21, 5–42.
Campbell, A. and P. Converse (eds.): 1972,The Human Meaning of Social Change, Russell Sage Foundation, New York.
Campbell, A., P. Converse, W. Miller, and D. Stokes: 1960,The American Voter, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
Cartwright, N.: 1983,How the Laws of Physics Lie, Oxford University Press, New York.
Converse, P.: 1969, ‘Of Time and Partisan Stability’,Comparative Political Studies, 13–71.
Converse, P.: 1974, ‘Comments on Burnham's ‘Theory and Voting Research’’,American Political Science Review 68, 1024–27.
Converse, P.: 1975, ‘Public Opinion and Voting Behavior’, in Greenstein (ed.),The Handbook of Political Science, Adison Wesley. Reading, Massachusetts.
Converse, P. and G. Markus: 1979, ‘Plus ca change...The New CPS Election Study Panel’,American Political Science Review 73, 32–49.
Erikson, Robert S. and Kent L. Tedin: 1981, ‘The 1928–1936 Partisan Realignment: The Case for the Conversion Hypothesis’,American Political Science Review, 951–61.
Friedman, Milton L.: 1974, ‘The Methodology of Positive Economics’, in Frank Hahn and Martin Hollis (eds.),Philosophy and Economic Theory, The Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 18–35.
Giere, R.: 1979,Understanding Scientific Reasoning, Hold Rinehardt and Winston, New York.
Giere, R.: 1984, ‘Toward a Unified Theory of Science’, unpublished manuscript, Indiana University, Indiana.
Giere, R.: 1985, ‘Philosophy of Science Naturalized’,Philosophy of Science 52, 331–56.
Hacking, I.: 1983,Representing and Intervening, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Hennessy, B.: 1985, ‘1880 Voting in California and Ohio: Victorian Super-Citizens?’,American Politics Quarterly 13, 323–39.
Jelen, Ted: 1986,Progress in Electoral Research: The Interplay of Competing Research Programs, The American Academy of Higher Education, Washington, DC.
Kiewiet, R. and D. Rivers: 1984, ‘A Retrospective on Retrospective Voting’,Political Behavior 6, 369–94.
Kinder, D. and R. Kiewiet: 1979, ‘Economic Discontent and Political Behavior: The Role of Personal Grievances and Collective Economic Judgments in Congressional Voting’,American Journal of Political Science 23, 493–527.
Kuhn, Thomas: 1962,The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
Ladd, E.: 1982,Where Have All the Voters Gone? W. W. Norton, New York.
Lewis-Beck, M.: 1983, ‘Economics and the French Voter: A Microanalysis’,Public Opinion Quarterly 47, 345–360.
Miller, A. and O. Listhaug: 1984, ‘Economic Effects on the Vote in Norway’,Political Behavior 6, 301–20.
Miller, Warren E.: 1984a, ‘Plans for the 1984 National Election Study’, presented to the Southwestern Social Science Association, Fort Worth, Texas, March 23, 1984.
Miller, Warren E.: 1984b, ‘The Scar of the Turbulent Decade’,Society 21, 26–30.
Rosenberg, Alexander: 1983, ‘If Economics Isn't Science, What Is It?’,The Philosophical Forum, pp. 296–314.
Rusk, Jerrold G.: 1974, ‘Comment: The American Electoral Universe: Speculation and Evidence’,American Political Science Review, pp. 1028–49.
Sigelman, L.: 1984, ‘Not a Bang But a Whimper’.,Society 21, 30–33.
Van Fraassen, B.: 1980,The Scientific Image, The Clarendon Press, Oxford.
Williams M.: 1973, ‘Falsifiable Predictions of Evolutionary Theory’,Philosophy of Science 40, 518–37.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
Thanks are due to a number of people, particularly to Ted Jelen for invaluable advice, encouragement and editorial assiatance, and to Sid Mikis, Paul Teller and Walter Dean Burnham for helpful and insightful comments. Research for this paper was supported by grants from the National Endowment for the Humanities (Grant #FT-23537), Faculty Development of DePauw University and the Humanities Division of Illinois Benedictine College.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Chandler, M. Models of voting behavior in survey research. Synthese 76, 25–48 (1988). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00869640
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00869640