Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

The effectiveness of measures to reduce the man-made greenhouse effect. The application of a Climate-policy Model

  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Summary

In this paper we briefly describe the characteristics and the performance of our 1-D Muenster Climate Model. The model system consists of coupled models including gas cycle models, an energy balance model and a sea level rise model. The chemical feedback mechanisms among greenhouse gases are not included. This model, which is a scientifically-based parameterized simulation model, is used here primarily to help assess the effectiveness of various plausible policy options in mitigating the additional man-made greenhouse warming and the resulting sea level rise.

For setting priorities it is important to assess the effectiveness of the various measures by which the greenhouse effect can be reduced. To this end we take a Scenario Business-as-Usual as a reference case (Leggett et al., 1992) and study the mitigating effects of the following four packages of measures: The Copenhagen Agreements on CFC, HCFC, and halon reduction (GECR, 1992), the Tropical Forest Preservation Plan of the Climate Enquete-Commission of the German Parliament on CO2 reduction (ECGP, 1990), a detailed reduction scheme for energy-related CO2 (ECGP, 1990), and a preliminary scheme for CH4, CO, and N2O reduction (Bach and Jain, 1992–1993).

The required reduction depends, among others, on the desired climate and ecosystem protection. This is defined by the Enquete-Commission and others as a mean global rate of surface temperature change of ca. 0.1 °C per decade — assumed to be critical to many ecosystems — and a mean global warming ceiling of ca. 2 °C in 2100 relative to 1860.

Our results show that the Copenhagen Agreements, the Tropical Forest Preservation Plan, the energy-related CO2 reduction scheme, and the CH4 and N2O reduction schemes could mitigate the anthropogenic greenhouse warming by ca. 12%, 6%, 35%, and 9% respectively. Taken together, all four packages of measures could reduce the man-made greenhouse effect by more than 60% until 2100; i.e. over the climate sensitivity range 2.5 °C (1.5 to 4.5) for 2 × CO2, the warming could be reduced from 3.5 °C (2.4 to 5.0) without specific measures to 1.3 °C (0.9 to 2.0) with the above packages of measures; and likewise, the mean global sea level rise could be reduced from 65 cm (46 to 88) without specific measures to 32 cm (22 to 47) with the above measures.

Finally, the model results also emphasize the importance of trace gases other than CO2 in mitigating additional man-made greenhouse warming. According to our preliminary estimates, CH4 could in the short term make a sizable contribution to the reduction of the greenhouse effect (because of its relatively short lifetime of 10 yr), as could N2O in the medium and long term (with a relatively long lifetime of 150 yr).

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Asscheleyn, P. H., Delaune, R. D., Patrick, W. H., 1993: Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from laboratory measurements of rice soil suspension — effect of soil oxidation-reduction status.Chemosphere 26 (25 N1-4), 251–260.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bach, W., Jain, A. K., 1990: The CFC greenhouse potential of scenarios possible under the Montreal protocol.Int. J. Climatology 10, 439–450.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bach, W., Jain, A. K., 1991: Toward climate conventions: Scenario analysis for a climate protection policy.Ambio 20, 322–329.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bach, W., Jain, A. K., 1992: Climate and ecosystem protection requires burden sharing. The specific tasks after Rio (I).Perspectives in Energy 2, 67–93.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bach, W., Jain, A. K., 1992–1993: Climate and ecosystem protection requires binding emission targets. The specific tasks after Rio (II).Perspectives in Energy 2, 173–214.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brühl, C., Crutzen, P. J., 1990: Ozone and climate changes in the light of the Montreal protocol: A model study.Ambio 19 (6-7), 293–301.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cubasch, U., Hasselmann, K., Hock, H., Maier-Reimer, E., Mikolajewicz, U., Santer, B. D., Sausen, R., 1992: Time dependent greenhouse warming computations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model.Climate Dynamics 8, 55–69.

    Google Scholar 

  • ECGP (Enquete Commission of the German Parliament), 1989:Protecting the Earth's Atmosphere. An International Challenge. Bonn, Karlsruhe: Economica and C. F. Müller, 592 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • ECGP, 1990:Protecting the Tropical Forests. A High-Priority International Task. 2nd Report. Bonn, Karlsruhe: Economica and C. F. Müller, 968 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • ECGP, 1991:Protecting the Earth. A Status Report with Recommendations for a new Energy Policy. 3rd Report, 2 vols. Bonn, Karlsruhe: Economica and C. F. Müller, 1680 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fischer, G., 1987:Climate simulations with the ECMWF T21-model in Hamburg. Hamburg: Meteorologisches Institut, Large Scale Atmospheric Modelling Report No. 1, 159 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gamlen, P. H., Lane, B. C., Midgley, P. M., Steed, J. M., 1986: The production and release to the atmosphere of CCl3F and CCl2F2 (chlorofluorocarbons CFC-11 and CFC-12).Atmos. Environ. 20, 1077–1085.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gehring, T., Oberthur, S., 1993: The Copenhagen meeting.Environment Policy and Law 23/1, 6–12.

    Google Scholar 

  • Global Environmental Change Report (GECR), 1992:The new Ozone Accord: The Strongest Packages of law but not enough. Vol. IV, No. 23, 1–3 (4 December 1992).

  • Gornitz, V., Lebedeff, S., 1987: Mean sea level changes during the past century, In: Nummedal, D., Pilkey, O. H., Howard, J. D. (eds):Sea Level Fluctuations and Coastal Evolution. SEPM special Publication No.41.

  • Gornitz, V., Lebedeff, S., Hansen, J., 1982: Global sea level trend in the past century.Science 215, 1611–1614.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hammitt, J. K., Camm, F., Connell, P. S., Mooz, W. E., Wolf, K. A., Wuebbles, D. J., Bamezai, A., 1987: Future emission scenarios for chemicals that may deplete stratospheric ozone.Nature 330, 711–716.

    Google Scholar 

  • Harvey, L. D. D., Schneider, S. H., 1985: Transient climate response to external forcing on 100–104 year time scales. Part I: Experiments with globally-averaged coupled atmosphere and ocean energy balance models.J. Geophys. Res. 90, 2191–2205.

    Google Scholar 

  • Harvey, L. D. D., 1989a: Effect of model structure on response of terrestrial biosphere models to CO2 and temperature increases.Global Biogeochem. Cycles 3, 137–153.

    Google Scholar 

  • Harvey, L. D. D., 1989b: Managing atmospheric CO2.Climatic Change 15, 343–381.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hauglustain, D. A., Garnier, C., Brasseur, G. P., Megie, G., 1994: The importance of atmospheric chemistry in the calculation of radiative forcing on the climate system.J. Geophys. Res. (accepted).

  • Hoffert, M. I., Covery, C., 1992: Deriving global climate sensitivity from paleoclimate reconstructions.Nature 360, 573–576.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hoffert, M. I., Wey, Y. C., Callegari, A. J., Broecker, W. S., 1979: Atmospheric response to deep-sea injections of fossil fuel carbon dioxide.Climatic Change 2, 53–68.

    Google Scholar 

  • Houghton, J. T., Callander, B. A., Varney, S. K. (eds.), 1992:Climate Change: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge: University Press, 200 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J., Ephraums, J.-J. (eds.), 1990:Climatic Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge: University Press, 364 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jain, A. K., Bach, W., 1993: Theory and development of an integrated climate model. Ace-report No. 66, Univ. of Muenster, Germany, 39 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jones, P. D., 1988: The influence of ENSO on global temperature.Climate Monitor 17(3), 80–89.

    Google Scholar 

  • INC (Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee), 1992:Report of the INC for a Framework Convention on Climate Change on the work of the second part of the 5th session, held at New York from April 30 to May 9, 1992. New York.

  • Krause, F., Bach, W., Koomey, J., 1990:Energy Policy in the Greenhouse. From Warming Fate to Warming Limit. London: Earth Scan Pub.

    Google Scholar 

  • Leggett, J., Pepper, W. J., Swart, R. J., 1992: Emission scenarios for IPCC: An update. In: Houghton, J. T., Callander, B. A., Varney, S. K. (eds.)Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge: University Press, 69–96.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lelieveld, J., Crutzen, P. J., 1992: Indirect chemical effects of methane on climate warming.Nature 355, 339–342.

    Google Scholar 

  • Levine, J. S., Rinsland, G. P., Tennille, G. M., 1985: The photochemistry of methane and carbon monoxide in the troposphere in 1950 and 1985.Nature 318, 254–257.

    Google Scholar 

  • Leyendekkers, J. V., 1976:Thermodynamics of Sea Water. New York: Dekker, 262–304.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lindzen, R. S., 1990: Some coolness concerning global warming.Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 71, 288–299.

    Google Scholar 

  • Meier, M. F., 1994: Contribution of small glaciers to global sea level.Science 226, 1418–1421.

    Google Scholar 

  • Meier-Reimer, E., Mikolajewicz, U., 1990: Experiments with an OGCM on the causes of the Younger Dryas. In: Ayala-Castanares, A., Wooester, W., Yanez-Arancibia, A. (eds.)Oceanography 1988. Mexico City: UNAM Press, 87–100.

    Google Scholar 

  • NASA, 1992:Concentrations, Lifetimes and Trends of CFCs, Halons, and Related Species. Washington, D. C.: NASA-Report.

    Google Scholar 

  • OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), 1991:Estimates of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks. Paris: Final report from the OECD experts meeting, OECD experts meeting, Paris, 18–21 February, 1991.

  • Oerlemans, J., 1989: A projection of future sea level.Climatic Change 15, 151–174.

    Google Scholar 

  • Oeschger, H., Siegenthaler, U., Schotterer, V., Gugelmann, A., 1975: A box diffusion model to study the carbon dioxide exchange in nature.Tellus 27, 168–192.

    Google Scholar 

  • Piehler, H., Bach, W., Jain, A. K., 1991:The Muenster Climate Model. Concept and Demonstration. Ace-report No. 49, Univ. of Muenster, 94 pp.

  • Ramanathan, V., Callis, L., Cess, R. D., Hansen, J., Isaksen, I. Kuhn, W., Lacis, A., Luther, F., Mahlman, J., Reck, R., Schlesinger, M., 1987: Climate-chemical interactions and effects of changing atmospheric trace gases.Rev. Geophys. 25, 1441–1482.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rind, D., Lacis, A., 1993: The role of the statosphere in climate change.Surveys in Geophysics 14, 133–165.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rotmans, J., Swart, R. J., Vrieze, O. J., 1990: The role of CH4-CO-OH cycle in the greenhouse problem.The Science of the Total Environment 94, 233–252.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sausen, R., 1991: Personal communication.

  • Schlesinger, M. E., Jiang, X., 1991: Revised projection of future greenhouse warming.Nature 350, 219–221.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shine, K. P., Derwent, R. G., Wuebbles, D. J., Morcrette, J. J., 1990: Radiative forcing of climate. In: Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J., Ephraums, J.-J. (eds.)Climatic Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge: University Press, 41–68.

    Google Scholar 

  • UN (1991):Energy Statistics Yearbook. New York: Dept. of Int. Economic and Social Affairs.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vaghjiani, G. L., Ravishankara, A. R., 1991: New measurements of the rate coefficient for the reaction of OH with methane.Nature 350, 406–409.

    Google Scholar 

  • Warrick, R. A., Oerlemans, H., 1990: Sea level rise. In: Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J., Ephraums, J.-J. (eds.)Climatic Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge: University Press, 257–282.

    Google Scholar 

  • Watson, R. T., Rodhe, H., Oeschger, H., Siegenthaler, U., 1990: Greenhouse gases and aerosols. In: Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J., Ephraums, J.-J. (eds.)Climatic Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge: University Press, 1–40.

    Google Scholar 

  • Watson, R. T., Meira Filho, L. G., Sanhueza, E., Janetos, A., 1992: Sources and sinks. In: Houghton, J. T., Challander, B. A., Varney, S. K. (eds.) Climate Change 1992:The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge: University Press, 25–46.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wiley, T. M. L., 1987: Relative contributions of different trace gases to the greenhouse effect.Climate Monitor 16(1), 14–28.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wigley, T. M. L., Raper, S. C. B., 1987: Thermal expansion of sea water associated with global warming.Nature 330, 127–131.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wigley, T. M. L., Jones, P. D., Kelly, P. M., 1986: Warm world scenarios and the detection of climatic change induced by radiatively active gases. In: Bolin, B., Döös, Bo, R., Jäger, J., Warrick, R. A. (eds.)The Greenhouse Effect, Climatic Change, and Ecosystems. Scope 29, Chichester: John Wiley, 271–321.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wigley, T. M. L., Barnett, T. P., 1990: Detection of greenhouse effect in the observations. In: Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J., Ephraums, J.-J. (eds.)Climatic Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge: University Press, 239–256.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wigley, T. M. L., Raper, S. C. B., 1990: Natural variability of the climate system and detection of the greenhouse effect.Nature 344, 324–327.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wigley, T. M. L., Raper, S. C. B., 1992: Implications for climatic and sea level of revised IPCC emission scenarios.Nature 357, 293–300.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wuebbles, D. J., Tamaresis, J. S., 1993: The role of methane in the global environment. In: Khali, M. A. K. (ed.)Atmospheric Methane: Sources, Sinks, and Role in Global Change. NATO ASI Series, Vol. 13. Berlin: Springer, 469–513.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Applied Climatology and Environmental Studies, Climate and Energy Research Unit, Department of Geography, University of Muenster, Muenster, Germany

    A. K. Jain & W. Bach

Authors
  1. A. K. Jain
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. W. Bach
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Additional information

With 7 Figures

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Jain, A.K., Bach, W. The effectiveness of measures to reduce the man-made greenhouse effect. The application of a Climate-policy Model. Theor Appl Climatol 49, 103–118 (1994). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00868195

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00868195

Keywords

Search

Navigation