Summary
Daily precipitation amounts from the meteorological station at Kaédi (Mauritania) are available since 1904, the country's longest record. The series constitutes an excellent tool for studying variations in the precipitation climate. Analysis of the annual precipitation amounts reveals the existence of a statistically highly significant downward trend which started in the sixties and is still continuing at present.
It was further found that the entire reference period 1904–1988 needs, for reasons of data stationarity, to be split into two parts, corresponding respectively to the periods 1904–1967 and 1968–1988, the year 1967 being estimated as the change-point. The latter period corresponds to the “drought” which has prevailed over the Sahel region since 1968. The jump disclosed in the hydroclimatic system is indicative of the existence of multiple stable climate regimes.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adefolalu, D. O., 1986: Further aspects of sahelian drought as evident from rainfall regime of Nigeria.Arch. Met. Geoph. Biocl., Ser. B 36, 277–295.
Albergel, J., Carbonnel, J. P., Grouzis, M., 1984/85: Péjoration climatique au Burkina Faso. Cahiers de l'Orstom, Série Hydrologique,XXI (1), 3–19.
Anonymous, 1979: Symposium on drought in Botswana. Botswana Society in Collaboration with Clark University Press, 305.
Beran, M. A., Rodier, J. A., 1985: Hydrological aspects of droughts. A contribution to the IHP. Unesco-WMO, Paris, 149.
Bowden, M. J., Kates, R. W., Kay, P. A., Riebsame, W. E., Warrick, R. A., Johnson, D. L., Gould, H. A., Weiner, D., 1981: The effect of climatic fluctuations on human populations: two hypotheses. In: Wigley, T. M. L., Ingram, M. J., Farmer, G. (eds.),Climate and History, Studies in Past Climates and Their Impact on Man. Cambridge University Press, p. 479–513.
Buishand, T. A., 1982: Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records.J. Hydrol. 58, 11–27.
Buishand, T. A., 1984: Tests for detecting a shift in the mean of hydrological time series.J. Hydrol. 73, 51–69.
Bunting, A. H., Dennett, M. D., Elston, J., Milford, J. R. 1976: Rainfall trends in the West African Sahel.Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 102, 59–64.
Carbonnel, J.-P., Hubert, P., 1985: Sur la sécheresse au Sahel d'Afrique de l'Ouest. Une rupture climatique dans les séries pluviométriques du Burkina Faso (ex Haute-Volta).C.R. Acad. Sci. Paris 301, Série II, no.13, 941–944.
Chadilly, M. S., 1986: Rapport de Stage, IRM, Uccle, 9 pp. + tableaux et figures.
Demarée, G., 1987: Traitement des données pluviométriques de la station de Kaédi (Mauritanie). Publications IRM, Misc. Série C, No. 24, 40 pp.
Demarée, G., Chadilly, M. S., 1988: The sahelian drought(s) as seen from the rainfall data of a mauritanian station. In: Ouazar, D., Brebbia, C. A., de Kosinsky, V. (eds.),Computer Methods and Water Resources, Vol. 3: Computational Hydrology. Berlin-Heidelberg-New York-Tokyo: Springer, p. 15–23.
Demarée, G. R., Nicolis, C., 1990: Onset of sahelian drought viewed as a fluctuation induced transition.Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 116, 221–238.
Dennett, M. D., Elston, J., Rodgers, J. A., 1985: A reappraisal of rainfall trends in the Sahel.J. Climatol. 5, 353–361.
Farmer, G., Wigley, T. M. L., 1985: Climatic trends for tropical africa. Research Report for Overseas Development Administration. Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, England, 136 pp.
Faure, H., Gac, J.-Y., 1981: Will the Sahelian drought end in 1985?Nature 291, 475–478. Reply:Nature, 293, 414.
Gac, J.-Y., Faure, H., 1987: Le “vrai” retour à l'humide au Sahel est-il pour demain?C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris 305, SérieII, 777–781.
Glantz, M. H., Katz, R. W., 1987: African drought and its impacts: revived interest in a recurrent phenomenon.Desertification Control Bulletin 14, 22–30.
Goossens, C., Berger, A., 1986: Annual and seasonal climatic variations over the northern hemisphere and Europe during the last century.Annales Geophysicae 4, B, 4, 385–400.
Grove, A. T., 1973: A note on the remarkably low rainfall of the Sudan zone in 1913.Savanna,2 (No. 2), 133–138.
Hare, F. K., 1983: Climate and desertification: A revised analysis, WCP-44, WMO/UNEP, 149 p.
Hubert, P., Carbonnel, J.-P., 1987: Approche statistique de l'aridification de l'Afrique de l'Ouest.J. Hydrol. 95, 165–183.
Hutchinson, P., 1985: Rainfall analysis of the sahelian drought in the Gambia.J. Climatol. 5, 665–672.
Lamb, P. J., 1982: Persistence of Subsaharan drought.Nature 299, 46–48.
Lamb, P. J., 1983: Sub-Saharan rainfall update for 1982: continued drought.J. Climatol. 3, 419–422.
Lamb, P. J., 1985: Rainfall in Subsaharan West Africa during 1941–1983.Zeitschrift für Gletscherkunde und Glazialgeologie 21, 131–139.
Lamb, P. J., 1985: Rainfall in Subsaharan West Africa during 1982–1984. In:Programme on Long-range Forecasting Research. Proc., WMO-Workshop, College Park, U.S.A. WMP/TD-No. 87, 86.
Lamb, P. J., 1988: Personal communication.
Landsberg, H. E., 1975: Sahel drought: Change of climate or part of climate?Arch. Met. Geoph. Biokl., Ser. B 23, 193–200.
Nicholson, S. E., 1978: Climatic variations in the Sahel and other African regions during the past five centuries.J. Arid Environ. 1, 3–24.
Nicholson, S. E., 1980: The nature of rainfall fluctuations in subtropical West Africa.Mon. Wea. Rev. 108, 473–487.
Nicholson, S. E., 1983: Saharan climates in historic times. In: Williams, M. A. J., Faure, H. (eds.)The Sahara and the Nile. Rotterdam: Balkema, p. 173–200.
Nicholson, S. E., 1983: Sub-Saharan rainfall in the years 1976–1980: Evidence of Continued Drought.Mon. Wea. Rev. 111, 1646–1654.
Nicholson, S. E., 1985: African rainfall fluctuations 1850 to present: spatial coherence, periodic behavior and long-term trends. In: Third Conference on Climatic Variations and Symposium on Contemporary Climate: 1850–2100. Los Angeles, January 1985, Am. Meteorol. Soc., Extended Abstracts, 62–63.
Nicholson, S. E., Chervin, R. M., 1983: Recent rainfall fluctuations in Africa-Interhemispheric teleconnections. In: Street-Perrott, A., Beran, M., Ratcliffe, R. (eds.),Variations of the Global Water Budget. Dordrecht: Reidel, p. 221–238.
Nicolis, C., Nicolis, G., 1981: Stochastic aspects of climatic transitions — Additive fluctuations.Tellus 33, 225–234.
Nicolis, C., 1982: Stochastic aspects of climatic transitions — response to a periodic forcing.Tellus 34, 1–9.
Ojo, O., 1987: Rainfall trends in West Africa, 1901–1985. In:The Influence of Climate Change and Climate Variability on the Hydrological Regime and Water Resources. Proc., Vancouver Symposium, August 1987. IAHS Publ.,168, 37–43.
Palutikof, J. P., Lough, J. M., Farmer, G., 1981: Senegal River runoff.Nature 293, 414.
Pettitt, A. N., 1979: A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem.Appl. Statist. 28, 2, 126–135.
Quinlan, F. T., 1986: Comments on “Sahel: The Changing Rainfall Regime and the ‘Normals’ Used for its Assessment”.J. Climate Appl. Meteorol. 27, 257.
Servant, M., Servant-Vildary, S., 1980: L'environnement quaternaire du bassin du Tchad. In: Williams, M. A. J., Faure, H. (eds.), The Sahara and the Nile. Rotterdam, Balkema, p. 133–162.
Sircoulon, J., 1976a: Les données hydropluviométriques de la sécheresse récente en Afrique intertropicale. Comparaison avec les sécheresses «1913» et «1940». Cahiers ORSTOM, Série Hydrologique,XII (2), 75–174.
Sircoulon, J., 1976b: La récente sécheresse des régions Sahéliennes. La Houille Blanche,6/7, 537–548.
Sneyers, R., 1975: Sur l'analyse statistique des séries d'observations. Note Technique No. 143, OMM-No. 415, Genève, 192 p.
Snijders, T. A. B., 1983: A study of the variability in space and time of Upper Volta rainfall. II. International Meeting on Statistical Climatology, Sept. 26–30, 1983, Lisboa, Portugal, 3.5.1–3.5.7.
Snijders, T. A. B., 1986: Interstation correlations and nonstationarity of Burkina Faso rainfall.J. Climate Appl. Meteorol. 25, 524–531.
Todorov, A. V., 1985: Sahel: The changing rainfall regime and the “normals” used for its assessment.J. Climate Appl. Meteorol. 24, 97–107. Reply:25, 258–259.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
With 7 Figures
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Demarée, G.R. An indication of climatic change as seen from the rainfall data of a mauritanian station. Theor Appl Climatol 42, 139–147 (1990). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00866869
Received:
Revised:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00866869