Advertisement

Annals of sex research

, Volume 6, Issue 4, pp 271–286 | Cite as

Prediction of sexual or violent recidivism among sexual offenders: A comparison of prediction instruments

  • Karl D. Furr
Article

Abstract

This paper reviews some of the literature on the prediction of violent or sexual recidivism among released sex offenders. Several prediction tools are examined. They are:Statistical Index of General Recidivism Scale, The Level of Supervision Inventory, The Risk Checklist for Child Molesters, The Psychopathy Checklist-Revised, andThe Statistical Prediction of Violent Recidivism Instrument. It is concluded that it may be possible to obtain reasonably accurate predictions of sexual or violent re-offence among released violent sexual offenders usingThe Psychopathy Checklist-Revised andThe Statistical Prediction of Violent Recidivism Instrument. However, the applicability of these instruments to specific populations of sex offenders is yet to be demonstrated. Survival curves or expectancy tables are needed to adjust the predictions for shorter periods of time than are considered in the follow-up studies on which the tools have been based, and to resolve apparent discrepancies across studies. General observations are made about the factors which are predictive of re-offence when the offence type of the offender is controlled. Cautions are raised about the underestimation by acturial prediction of the true rate of re-offence and of the degree of harm which may be inflicted by sexual sadists or sexual murderers.

Keywords

True Rate Statistical Index General Observation Apparent Discrepancy Prediction Tool 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Andrews, D.A., Bonta, J., & Hoge, R.D. (1990). Classification for effective rehabilitation: rediscovering psychology.Criminal Justice and Behavior, 17, 19–51.Google Scholar
  2. Andrews, D.A., Kiessling, J.J., Robinson, D., & Mickus, S. (1986). The risk principle of case classification: An outcome evaluation with young adult probationers.Canadian Journal of Criminology, 28, 377–384.Google Scholar
  3. Burgess, E.M. (1928).The working of the indeterminate sentence law and the parole system in Illinois. Springfield, Illinois Parole Board.Google Scholar
  4. Correctional Service of Canada Research Branch. (1991). Everything you wanted to know about Canadian federal sex offenders and more. Forum on Correction Research, Research and Statistics Branch, Correctional Service of Canada.Google Scholar
  5. Davidson, P.R. (1984). Behavioral treatment for incarcerated sex offenders: post-treatment outcome. Unpublished manuscript. Kingston, Ontario: Regional Treatment Centre, Kingston Penitentiary.Google Scholar
  6. Kietz, P.E., Hazelwood, R.R., Warren, J. (1990). The sexually sadistic criminal and his offences.Bulletin of the American Academy of Psychiatry and Law, 18, 163–178.Google Scholar
  7. Furby, L., Weinrott, M.R., & Blackshaw, L. (1989). Sex offender recidivism: A review.Psychological Bulletin, 105, 3 - 30.Google Scholar
  8. Gordon, A., Holden, R., & Lies, T. (1991). Managing and treating sex offenders: Matching risk and needs with programming. Forum on Correctional Research, Research and Statistics Branch, Correctional Service of Canada.Google Scholar
  9. Hanson, R.K., Steffy, R.A., & Gauthier, R. (1992).Long-term follow-up of child molesters: Risk predictors and treatment outcome. Ottawa: Corrections Branch, Ministry of the Solicitor General of Canada.Google Scholar
  10. Hare, R. (1985). Comparison of procedures for the assessment of psychopathy in criminal populations.Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 53, 7 - 16.Google Scholar
  11. Hare, R. (1990). The violent psychopath. Paper presented at the Third Symposium on Violence and Aggression. June 24 – 27, 1990, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan.Google Scholar
  12. Hare, R. (1991).Psychopathy Checklist. Toronto, Ontario: MultiHealth Systems, Inc.Google Scholar
  13. Hare, R.D., & McPherson, L.M. (1984). Violent and aggressive behavior by criminal psychopaths.International Journal of Law and Psychiatry, 7, 35 - 50.Google Scholar
  14. Harris, G.T. & Quinsey, V.L. (1991). The prediction of violent recidivism by sex offenders. Unpublished manuscript. Kingston, Ontario: Queen's University.Google Scholar
  15. Harris, G.T., Rice, M.E., & Cormier, C.A. (1991). Psychopathy and violent recidivism.Law and Human Behavior, 15, 625–637.Google Scholar
  16. Harris, G.T., Rice, M.E., & Quinsey, V.L. (1990).Followup of rapists assessed in a maximum security psychiatric facility. Mental Health Centre, Penetanguishene, Ontario.Google Scholar
  17. Harris, G.T., Rice, M.E., & Quinsey, V.L. (1992).Violent recidivism of mentally disordered offenders: The development of a statistical prediction instrument. Mental Health Centre, Penetanguishene, Ontario.Google Scholar
  18. Hart, S.D., Kropp, P.R., & Hare, R.D. (1988). Performance of male psychopaths following conditional release from prison.Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 56, 227–232.Google Scholar
  19. Litwack, T.R., & Schlesinger, L.B. (1987). Assessing and predicting violence: Research, law, and applications. In Weiner, I.B. & Hess, A.K. (Eds.).Handbook of Forensic Psychology. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
  20. Monahan, J. (1981).The clinical prediction of violent behavior. Rickville, MD: National Institute of Mental Health, 1981.Google Scholar
  21. Nuffield, J. (1982).Parole decision making in Canada: Research towards decision guidelines. Ottawa: Solicitor General of Canada.Google Scholar
  22. Nuffield, J. (1989). The SIR Scale: some reflections on its applications. Forum on Corrections Research, Research and Statistics Branch, Correctional Service of Canada.Google Scholar
  23. Quinsey, V.L., (1980). The baserate problem and the prediction of dangerousness: a reappraisal.Journal of Psychiatry and Law, 8, 329–340.Google Scholar
  24. Quinsey, V.L. (1984). Sexual aggression: Studies of offenders against women. In D. Weisstub (Ed.)Law and Mental health: International perspectives 1; (pp. 84- 121) New York: Pergamon Press.Google Scholar
  25. Quinsey, V.L. (1992a). Presentation at Risk Prediction Workshop, Ontario Regional Psychologists, Correctional Service Canada, March, 1992.Google Scholar
  26. Quinsey, V.L., Rice, M.E., Harris, G., Lalumiére, M.L. (in press). In J. Campbell (Ed.). Assessing Dangerousness.Google Scholar
  27. Rice, M., Harris, G., & Quinsey, V. (1990a). A follow-up of rapists assessed in a maximum security psychiatric facility.Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 5, 435–448.Google Scholar
  28. Rice, M., Harris, G., & Quinsey, V. (1990b). Sexual recidivism among child molesters released from a maximum security psychiatric institution.Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 59, 381–386.Google Scholar
  29. Rice, M., Harris, G., & Quinsey, V.L. (1991).Psychopathy, sexual deviance and recidivism among released sex offenders, 7, (1). Mental Helath Centre, Penetanguishene, Ontario.Google Scholar
  30. Regional Treatment Centre (Ontario). (1990).Outcome data on sex offenders assessed and treated at the Regional Treatment Centre (Ontario). Kingston: Regional Treatment Centre (Ontario).Google Scholar
  31. Serin, R. (1991). Psychopathy and violence in criminals.Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 6, 423–432.Google Scholar
  32. Serin, R. (in press). Violent recidivism in criminal psychopaths.Law and Human Behavior.Google Scholar
  33. Serin, R., & Barbaree, H.E. (in press) Decision issues in risk assessment. Forum on Corrections Research. Research and Statistics Branch, Correctional Service of Canada.Google Scholar
  34. Warren, J.J., Reboussin, R.R., Hazelwood, R.R., & Wright, J.A. (1991). Prediction of rapist type and violence from verbal, physical and sexual scales.Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 6, 55 - 67.Google Scholar
  35. Wong, S. (1984).The criminal and institutional behaviours of psychopaths. Ottawa: Ministry of the Solicitor General.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Juniper Press 1988

Authors and Affiliations

  • Karl D. Furr
    • 1
  1. 1.Regional Treatment Centre OntarioKingston

Personalised recommendations