Abstract
Crisis simulation is by definition an exercise in cognitive structuring. It is argued that this automatically entails a search for heuristics and organizational decisions which might render complex, highly interactive social and technological situations comprehensible, hopefully amenable to being programmed and, ultimately, controlled. In this paper, a cognitive analysis is presented of alternative paths available to an organization that is in a crisis state to move away from crisis back to more routine modes of operation. Cognitive mapping of plausible post-crisis decision-paths results in a multi-path scheme that enables one to comprehend, even assess, the erratic development of political and socio-technological events in a post-crisis period. The specific example that is used to illustrate the applicability of such a multi-path scheme concerns the revival of NASA following the Space Shuttle disaster. In contrasting the cognitive opportunities in post-crisis situations with the cognitive failures implicit in pre-crisis settings, the multi-path simulation technique enables a more sophisticated understanding of the dynamics of crisis development.
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Jarman, A., Kouzmin, A. Decision pathways from crisis. Contemporary Crises 14, 399–433 (1990). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00728510
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00728510