Seismic hazard analysis with randomly located sources

Abstract

Demarcation of areal and linear seismic sources involves a certain degree of uncertainty and this should be reflected in the final seismic hazard results. The uncertainty associated with the description of the geographical coordinates of a source zone boundary is modeled by introducing the concept of ‘random boundary’, where the location of the boundary is assumed to exhibit a spatial bivariate Gaussian distribution. Here the mean vector denotes the best estimate of location and the variance reflects the magnitude of location uncertainty, which may be isotropic or may show spatial directivity. The consideration of spatial randomness in the boundaries smooths the seismicity parameters and permits the gradual transitions of these to occur across border zones. Seismic sources modeled as lines can also be attributed random geometrical properties.

The sensitivity of seismic hazard results to the isotropic and direction dependent location uncertainty is examined on the basis of hypothetical case studies. Area and line source location uncertainties are examined separately because they are reflected in the eventual outcome of the analyses in a complicated manner. The effect of random source zone boundaries on the expected peak ground acceleration is tested for a specific site in Turkey by conducting a comprehensive seismic hazard analysis.