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Joint application of an empirical and mechanistic model for regional lake acidification

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Abstract

The empirical direct distribution model for lake acidification is calibrated for use in an integrated assessment model which predicts the regional impact of an acid deposition control strategy. The calibration is based on the mechanistic Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC). The models are applied jointly to a set of 33 statistically-selected lakes in the Adirondack region of New York. Calibration of the direct distribution model is based on a step-function application of acid deposition to MAGIC. Comparative evaluations of the resulting model predictions are made using historic deposition estimates and two alternative future deposition scenarios. The predictions of the direct distribution model match well the shapes and patterns of change of the regional distributions of ANC and pH predicted by MAGIC, the short- and medium-term dynamics of these changes, and the effect of including organic acids. However, small, long-term decreases in the fraction of incoming acid deposition neutralized by lakes and their watersheds predicted by MAGIC are not reproduced.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Civil Engineering and Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 15213, Pittsburgh, PA, USA

    Mitchell J. Small

  2. Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, 22903, Charlottesville, VA, USA

    Bernard J. Cosby

  3. Enserch Environmental Corporation, 43017, Dublin, OH, USA

    Ronald J. Marnicio

  4. Lumina Decision Systems, 94306, Palo Alto, CA, USA

    Max Henrion

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  1. Mitchell J. Small
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  2. Bernard J. Cosby
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  3. Ronald J. Marnicio
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  4. Max Henrion
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Small, M.J., Cosby, B.J., Marnicio, R.J. et al. Joint application of an empirical and mechanistic model for regional lake acidification. Environ Monit Assess 35, 113–136 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00633710

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00633710

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