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Ageing and the labor market

Age structure, cohort size and unemployment

Abstract

Generation size and structure may have substantial effects on the labor market. This perspective is crucial for the German economy which is one of the most rapidly ageing societies. The paper studies the effects of relative cohort size and relative cohort age on unemployment. The time-series analysis employs cointegration techniques to discriminate between short-run and long-run developments. The econometric investigations suggest that in the long-run, there is no sufficient evidence that young cohorts experience higher unemployment rates if their cohort size is relatively high. In the short-run, there is in general a positive impact of relative cohort size and relative cohort age on unemployment.

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Revised version of Discussion Paper No. 90-25, University of Munich. A first draft of this paper was written, when I was visiting CentER, Tilburg University. I wish to thank Sijbren Cnossen, John De New, Horst Krämer, Walter Krämer, Winfried Schmahl, Christoph M. Schmidt, Bernard M. S. van Praag, Michael R. Veall, Jürgen Wolters, the participants of the ISPE-conference and three referees of this journal for helpful comments, John De New, Lucie Merkle and Martin Milhleisen for able research assistance, and the German Science Foundation (DFG) for financial support. The paper has also benefited from a research visit to Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve.

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Zimmermann, K.F. Ageing and the labor market. J Popul Econ 4, 177–200 (1991). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00602428

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Keywords

  • Labor Market
  • Positive Impact
  • Unemployment Rate
  • Substantial Effect
  • Sufficient Evidence