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Impact of climate change on maize yield in central and northern Greece: A simulation study with CERES-Maize

  • G. Kapetanaki
  • C. Rosenzweig
Article

Abstract

The potential impacts of climate change on the phenology and yield of two maize varieties in Greece were studied. Three sites representing the central and northern agricultural regions were selected: Karditsa, Naoussa and Xanthi. The CERES-Maize model, embedded in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT 3.0), was used for the crop simulations, with current and possible future management practices. Equilibrium doubled CO2 climate change scenarios were derived from the GISS, GFDL, and UKMO general circulation models (GCMs); a transient scenario was developed from the GISS GCM transient run A. These scenarios predict consistent increases in air temperature, small increases in solar radiation and precipitation changes that vary considerably over the study regions in Greece. Physiological effects of CO2 on crop growth and yield were simulated. Under present management practices, the climate change scenarios generally resulted in decreases in maize yield due to reduced duration of the growing period at all sites. Adaptation analyses showed that mitigation of climate change effects may be achieved through earlier sowing dates and the use of new maize varieties. Varieties with higher kernel-filling rates, currently restricted to the central regions, could be extended to the northern regions of Greece. In the central regions, new maize varieties with longer grain-filling periods might be needed.

Key words

Greece maize climate change CO2 effects adaptation crop simulation 

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Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 1997

Authors and Affiliations

  • G. Kapetanaki
    • 1
  • C. Rosenzweig
    • 2
    • 3
  1. 1.Institute for Soils Classification and MappingNational Agricultural Research FoundationLarissaGreece
  2. 2.NASA/Goddard Institute for Space StudiesNew YorkUSA
  3. 3.Center for Climate Systems ResearchColumbia UniversityNew YorkUSA

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