Impact of climate change on maize yield in central and northern Greece: A simulation study with CERES-Maize

  • G. Kapetanaki
  • C. Rosenzweig


The potential impacts of climate change on the phenology and yield of two maize varieties in Greece were studied. Three sites representing the central and northern agricultural regions were selected: Karditsa, Naoussa and Xanthi. The CERES-Maize model, embedded in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT 3.0), was used for the crop simulations, with current and possible future management practices. Equilibrium doubled CO2 climate change scenarios were derived from the GISS, GFDL, and UKMO general circulation models (GCMs); a transient scenario was developed from the GISS GCM transient run A. These scenarios predict consistent increases in air temperature, small increases in solar radiation and precipitation changes that vary considerably over the study regions in Greece. Physiological effects of CO2 on crop growth and yield were simulated. Under present management practices, the climate change scenarios generally resulted in decreases in maize yield due to reduced duration of the growing period at all sites. Adaptation analyses showed that mitigation of climate change effects may be achieved through earlier sowing dates and the use of new maize varieties. Varieties with higher kernel-filling rates, currently restricted to the central regions, could be extended to the northern regions of Greece. In the central regions, new maize varieties with longer grain-filling periods might be needed.

Key words

Greece maize climate change CO2 effects adaptation crop simulation 


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Cock, B. and AllenJr., L. H.: 1985, Crop responses to elevated carbon dioxide concentrations. In B. R.Strain and J. D.Cure (eds). Direct Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide on Vegetation. U.S. Department of Energy. DOE/ER-0238 Washington, D.C. pp. 33–97.Google Scholar
  2. Basci, Z., Thornton, P. K. and Dent, J. B.: 1991. Impacts of Future Climate Change on Hungarian Crop Production: An Application of Crop Growth Simulation Models. Agr. Syst. 37, 435–450.Google Scholar
  3. Hansen, J., Russel, G., Rind, D., Stone, P., Lacis, A., Lebedeff, S., Ruedy, R.,and Travis, L.: 1983. Efficient three dimensional global models for climate studies: Models I and II. Monthly Weather Review 111(4), 609–662.Google Scholar
  4. Hansen, J., Fung, I., Lacis, A., Rind, D., Russel, G., Lebedeff, S., Ruedy, R.,and Stone, P.: 1988. Global climate changes as forecast by the GISS 3-D model. Journal of Geophysical Research 93, 9341–9364.Google Scholar
  5. International Benchmark Sites Network for Agrotechnology Transfer (IBSNAT).: 1989. Decision Support System for Agrothechnology Transfer Version 2.1 (DSSAT 2.1). Dept. of Agronomy and Soil Science. College of tropical Agriculture and Human Resources. University of Hawaii. Honolulu.Google Scholar
  6. IPCC. Climate Change, 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigations of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses, 1996. R. T.Watson, M. C.Zinyowera, R. H.Moss (Eds), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 890 pp.Google Scholar
  7. Jones, C. A. and Kiniry, J. R.: 1986. CERES-Maize: A simulation Model of Maize Growth and Development. Texas A&M Press, College station.Google Scholar
  8. Jones, H. G.: 1992. Plants and Microclimate. A Quantitative Approach to Environmental Plant Physiology, Second Edition, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.Google Scholar
  9. Manabe, S. and Wetherland, R. T.: 1987. Large-scale changes in soil wetness induced by an increase in CO2, Journal of Atmospheric Science, 44 1211–1235.Google Scholar
  10. Maytin, E. C., Achevedo, M. F., Jaimez, R., Andressem, R., Harwell, M. A., Robock, A., andAzocar, A.: 1995. Potential effects of Global Climate Change on the Phenology and Yield of Maize in Venezuela. Climatic Change 29, 189–211.Google Scholar
  11. Mearns, L. O. and Rosenzweig, C.: 1996. Formulation of climate change scenarios incorporating changes in daily climate variability and application to crop models, in: Assessing Climate Change: The story of the Model Evaluation Consortium for Climate Assessment. Chap. 15. Howe, W., and Henderson-Sellers, A. (Eds.). Academic Publishers, in press.Google Scholar
  12. National Agricultural Research Foundation. (NAGREF): 1995. Meteorological data files Pomology Institute at Naoussa Greece, unpublished.Google Scholar
  13. Parry, M. L., Carter, T. R., and Konijn, N. T. (eds).: 1988. The Impact of Climatic Variation on Agriculture. Vol. 1. Assessments in Cool Temperate and Cold Regions. Vol. 2. Assessments in Semi-arid Regions. Kluwer. Dordrecht. Netherlands.Google Scholar
  14. Peart, R. M., Jones, J. W., Curry, R. B., Boote, K., and AllenJr., L. H.: 1989. Impact ofclimate change on crop yield in the southeastern U.S.A. In J. B.Smith and D. A.Tirpak (eds). The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States. Report to Congress. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. EPA-230-05-89-050. Appendix C. Washington, D.C.Google Scholar
  15. Ritchie, J. T., Singh, U., Godwin, D., and Hunt, L.: 1989. A User's Guide to CERES-Maize v.2.10. International Fertilizer Development Center, Muscle Shoals.Google Scholar
  16. Rosenberg, N. J., and Crosson, P. R.: 1991. Processes for Identifying Regional Influences of and Responses to Increasing Atmospheric CO2 and Climate Change: The MINK Project. An Overview. Resources for the Future. Dept. of Energy. DOE/RL/01830t-H5. Washington, D.C. 35 pp.Google Scholar
  17. Rosenzweig, C.: 1990. Crop response to Climate Change in Southern Great Plains: A simulation study. Prof. Geog. 42, 20–39.Google Scholar
  18. Rosenzweig, C., and Parry, M. L.: 1994. Potential Impact of climate change on world food supply. Nature 367, 133–138.Google Scholar
  19. Rosenzweig, C., and Iglesias, A. (eds).: 1994, Implications of Climate Change for International Agriculture: Crop modeling study. USEPA. Washington DC.Google Scholar
  20. Rosenzweig, C., Allen, Jr., L. H., Harper, L. A., Hollinger, S. E., and. Jones, J. W. (eds).: 1995. Climate Change and Agriculture: Analysis of Potential International Impacts. ASA Special Publication No 59, Madison, WI.Google Scholar
  21. Rosenzweig, C. and Tubiello, F.N.: 1996. Effects of Changes in Minimum and Maximum Temperature on Wheat Yields in the Central U.S.: A Simulation Study. Agric. For. Meteorol., in press.Google Scholar
  22. Tobacco Research Organization (TRO.).: 1995. Meteorological data files. Dept. of Tobacco Research Organization Greece, unpublished.Google Scholar
  23. Tsuji, G. Y., Uehara, G., and Balas, S. (eds).: 1994. Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Version 3.0 (DSSAT V3.0). International Benchmark Sites Network for Agrotechnology Transfer Project (IBSNAT). University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii.Google Scholar
  24. Wilson, C. A., and Mitchell, J. F. B.: 1987. A Doubled CO2 Climate Sensitivity Experiment with a Global Climate Model Including a Simple Ocean. J. Geophys. Res. 92, 315–343.Google Scholar
  25. Wolf, J., and VanDieppen, C. A.: 1995. Effects of Climate Change on Grain Maize Yield Potential in the European Community. Climatic Change 29, 299–331.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 1997

Authors and Affiliations

  • G. Kapetanaki
    • 1
  • C. Rosenzweig
    • 2
    • 3
  1. 1.Institute for Soils Classification and MappingNational Agricultural Research FoundationLarissaGreece
  2. 2.NASA/Goddard Institute for Space StudiesNew YorkUSA
  3. 3.Center for Climate Systems ResearchColumbia UniversityNew YorkUSA

Personalised recommendations