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Measuring natural resource scarcity

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Abstract

One fundamental index of world social welfare is the availability of natural resources relative to population. In recent years, social, policy, and even physical scientists have been unable to reach consensus on whether natural resources are becoming increasingly scarce. The prevailing pessimistic view of the 1970s has been strongly challenged in the 1980s by resource-population optimists such as Julian Simon. In this paper, we argue that one source of failure to reach consensus is the fundamental ambiguity of available measures of natural resource scarcity. Surveying measures such as unit extraction cost, relative price, and the reserves-to-production ratio, we discuss difficulties of interpretation. Some of the problems identified may yield to further research, but others appear irremediable.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Employment Planning and Population Branch, Employment and Development Department, International Labour Office, Geneva, Switzerland

    F. Landis Mackellar & Daniel R. Vining Jr.

  2. Department of Regional Science, University of Pennsylvania, 19104, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

    F. Landis Mackellar & Daniel R. Vining Jr.

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  1. F. Landis Mackellar
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  2. Daniel R. Vining Jr.
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Mackellar, F.L., Vining, D.R. Measuring natural resource scarcity. Soc Indic Res 21, 517–530 (1989). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00513459

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