Abstract
The PROFILE model is a steady state soil chemistry model which is used to calculate soil weathering rate. The model has also been used to calculate critical loads of acidity and N to forest soils, using the ratio of Ca+Mg+K to total inorganic aluminium in the soil solution as criterion, and to surface waters, using the ANC leached from the soil column as criterion.
An uncertainty analysis of the PROFILE model was performed by Monte Carlo analysis, varying input parameter errors individually and simultaneously in ranges of ±10–100%, depending on parameter. The uncretainty in calculation of weathering rate, ANC leaching and ratio of Ca+Mg+K to inorganic Al in the soil solution was studied for three Nordic sites. Furthermore, the effect of uncertainty in estimates of critical load for forest soils was assessed.
The analysis shows that the weathering rate can be calculated with high precision, provided that the errors of input parameter are within the range that has been reported in the literature. The model tend to be less sensitive to errors in input parameters for the range of conditions where forest damage is most likely to occur. Critical loads of acid deposition for one site calculated on the basis of the model varies within a largest range of ±40%. A study of one geographical grid included in the Swedish critical loads assessment shows that with the number of calculation points in the grid, the distribution of critical loads will stay stable independently of stochastic errors.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alveteg, M., Warfvinge, P. and Sverdrup, H.: 1995, Developing a kinetic alternative in modelling soil aluminium, Water, Air, and Soil Pollution (accepted for publication).
Aune, E., Dahl, E., and Løes, A.-K.: 1989, Medd. Nor. Inst. Skogsforsk. 42, 133.
Castelle, A. and Galloway, J.: 1990, Soil Sci. Soc. Am. 54, 252.
Gardelin, M. and Warfvinge, P.: 1992, Data base, in P. Sandén and P. Warfvinge (eds.), Modelling acidification of groundwater, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, p. 13.
Gardner, R.: 1983, Error analysis and sensitivity analysis in ecology, in M. Singh (ed.), Encyclopedia of systems and control, Pergamon Press, London, p. 1549.
Gundersen, P.: 1992, Mass balance approaches for establishing critical loads for nitrogen in terrestrial ecosystems, Critical loads for nitrogen — a workshop report, Nord 1992:41, Nordic Council of Ministers, Copenhagen, p. 55.
Henriksen, A., Kämäri, J., Posch, M, Lövblad, G., Forsius, M. and Wilander, A.: 1990, Critical loads to surface waters in Fennoscandia, Miljörapport 1990:17, Nordic Council of Minister, Copenhagen, 33 pp.
Hinder, A. and Nilssen, J.: 1983, Årsrapport 1980/1981 Kalkningsprosjektet i Gjerstad, Aust-Agder, Miljöverndepartementet, Oslo, 54 pp.
Jacks, G., Åberg, G. and Hammilton, P.: 1989, Nordic Hydrology 20, 85.
Landmann, G. (ed.): 1991, French research into forest decline, ENGREF (Ecole nationale du génie rural, des eaux et des forêts), Nancy, 120 pp.
Maxe, L., Lundin, L., Jacks, G. and Knutsson, G.: 1994, Effects of acidification on groundwater in Sweden — Hydrological and Hydrochemical processes, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm.
Matzner, E.: 1987, Rates of Na, K, Ca and Mg release by weathering derived from long term flux monitoring in two forested ecosystems in Germany, in T. Pačes (ed.), Geochemical monitoring in small representative catchments, Proceedings of the Geomon workshop, Geological Survey, Prague, p. 10.
Nilsson, J. and Grennfelt, P. (eds.): 1988, Critical loads for sulphur and nitrogen, Nord 1988:15, Nordic Council of Ministers, Copenhagen, 418 pp.
Olsson, M. and Melkerud, P. A.: 1991, Determination of weathering rates based on geochemical properties of the soil, in E. Pulkkinen (ed.), Environmental Geochemistry in northern Europe No. 34, Special Paper 9, Geological Survey of Finland, Espoo, p. 69.
Pačes, T.: 1986, Journal of the Geological Society, London 143, 673.
Rasmussen, L. and Hansen, K.: 1992, Air pollution effects on forests examined by manipulation of the forest ecosystem, Lab. of Environmental Sciences and Ecology, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby.
Snäll, S., Brusewitz, A.-M. and Ålinder, C.: 1992, Mineralogisk analys av moräner, Swedish Geological Survey, Uppsala, 16 pp.
Sverdrup, H. and Warfvinge, P.: 1991, On the geochemistry of chemical weathering, in K. Rosén (ed.), Chemical Weathering under Field Conditions, Reports on Forest Ecology and Forest Soils No. 63, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden, p. 79.
Sverdrup, H. and Warfvinge, P.: 1992, Applied Geochemistry 8(3), 273.
Sverdrup, H. P. W., Rabenhorst, M., Janicki, A., Morgan, R., and Bowman, M.: 1992a, Env. pollut. 77, 195.
Sverdrup, H. U., de Vries, W., and Henriksen, A.: 1990, Mapping Critical Loads, Miljörapport 1990:98, Nordic Council of Ministers, Copenhagen, 123 pp.
Sverdrup, H., Warfvinge, P., and Jönsson, C.: 1992b, Critical loads for forest soils, groundwater and first order streams in Sweden, in E. Eriksson (ed.), Proceedings of the annual Brittish Critical Load meeting. IAHS-AISH Publication No. 150.
Sverdrup, H., Warfvinge, P. and Rosén, K.: 1991, Water, Air and Soil Pollut. 61, 365.
Sverdrup, H., Warfvinge, P., Johansson, M., Frogner, T., Håöja, A.-O., and Andersen, B.: 1992c, Ambio 5, 348.
Tiwari, J. and Hobbie, J.: 1976, Math. Bioscience 3, 25.
Warfvinge, P. and Sverdrup, H.: 1992, Water, Air, and Soil Pollut. 63, 119.
Warfvinge, P., Holmberg, M., Posch, M., and Wright, R.: 1992, Ambio 5, 369.
Warfvinge, P., Sverdrup, H., and Rosén, K.: 1993, Calculating critical loads for n to forest soils, in P. Grennfelt and E. Thörnelöf (eds.), Critical Loads for Nitrogen, Nordic Council of Ministers, Copenhagen, p. 403.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Jönsson, C., Warfvinge, P. & Sverdrup, H. Uncertainty in predicting weathering rate and environmental stress factors with the profile model. Water Air Soil Pollut 81, 1–23 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00477253
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00477253