Water Resources Management

, Volume 2, Issue 4, pp 245–254 | Cite as

On the application of the Bootstrap to assess the risk of deficient annual inflows to a reservoir

  • W. Wucchini
  • P. T. Adamson
Article

Abstract

The paper considers the problem of univariate model selection in order to assess the risk of sequences of deficient annual inflow sums to a reservoir. A selection criterion is proposed which emphasises the fit of a model to the lower tail of the empirical distribution function. The expectation of the discrepancy between the operating and approximating models is estimated using the Bootstrap algorithm. The Bootstrap is also used to estimate confidence intervals about an estimated percentile and these are compared to those found using conventional asymptotic estimators. Applications are given for three South African reservoirs.

Key words

Deficient annual inflows univariate model selection bootstrap confidence intervals 

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References

  1. Efron, B., 1982, The jackknife, the bootstrap and other resampling plans, CBMS-NSF Regional Conference Series in Applied Mathematics, Monograph 38, Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Philadelphia.Google Scholar
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  6. Zucchini, W. and Adamson, P. T., 1988, Bootstrap confidence intervals for design storms from exceedance series, Hydrological Sciences Journal, in press.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 1988

Authors and Affiliations

  • W. Wucchini
    • 1
  • P. T. Adamson
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of Mathematical StatisticsUniversity of Cape TownSouth Africa
  2. 2.Department of Civil EngineeringUniversity of StellenboschStellenboschSouth Africa

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