Abstract
This paper presents the results obtained from computer simulations conducted to determine the sentitivity of occupational employment demands to shifting patterns of U.S. Federal expenditures. The general model utilized is described and the effects of four hypothesized shifts in national priorities upon U. S. manpower requirements in the early 1960's are estimated. Selected occupations are classified and ranked according to their sensitivity to changing patterns of resource allocation between military and civilian activities. From these findings implications for economic and manpower forecasting are derived and discussed.
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The author is senior energy economist with the U. S. Energy Research and Development Administration; this paper was written while he was on the faculty of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He is indebted to Hugh Folk, George Judge, and Paul Wells of the University of Illinois, Jack Alterman of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Beatrice Vaccara of the Office of Business Economics and Anne Carter and Wassily Leontief of Harvard University for helpful comments and criticisms on various aspects of this study, but retains sole responsibility for the contents of this paper and the opinions expressed here. This work was supported in part by a Doctoral Dissertation Grant from the Manpower Administration of the U. S. Department of Labor and in part by the Advanced Research Projects Agency of the Department of Defense under Contract No. DAHCO04-72-C-0001 to the Center for Advanced Computation of the University of Illinois.
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Bezdek, R.H. Manpower impacts of changes in federal budget priorities. Econ Plann 13, 211–222 (1973). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00417660
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00417660