A model for demographic mobility analysis under patterns of efficient employment

Conclusions

The primary objective of this paper has been to provide a broadened framework for combining economic and demographic planning in a way which is also consistent with planning and accounting models developed and employed by both demographers and economists. In addition we also want to have this same framework available for extension to other types of multi-dimensional social-economic planning possibilities. One set of such examples may be found in the work by Stone [28], Wilson and Rees [34] and the United Nations' current program for developing systems of social and demographic accounts for possible use in new and improved approaches to country development planning. Another example, which, though broader, is also somewhat more theoretical may be found in [25] where explixit use is made of the E matrix for linking economic and demographic dimensions in planning applications.

In this paper we have focused on Leontief-type analyses, extended to provide demographic linkages, because we want to adapt some of the sharper concepts of economics (e.g., Pareto optimality) to provide additional assistance for guiding and coordinating eco-demographic planning interactions. To be sure, such concepts are of interest in their own right, as when, say, an improvement in conditions for fulfilling career aspirations may cause a wrosening in one or more components of final demand. They are also of interest for other reasons as well. In particular they are of interest as an alternative to only empirical extrapolations or predictions for long range plans especially when, as we show here, they can yield relatively stable guides for longer range plans.

The idea, of course, is to utilize these “stable” patterns in relatively flexible ways and not for the purpose of only imposing a supposedly coherent regimen on all subsequent activities in an economy-or other such social unit. This means that some idea of the significance of these guidelines and their potential alterations must also be available. It is to this end that our kind of theoretical underpinning is supplied. On the one hand, it provides access to a well thought over body of concepts, e.g., from the main body of welfare economics. On the other hand, it supplies access to manipulative and computational power which is readily available from demographic as well as economic analysis in ways that can be readily implemented via modern electronic computational facilities, etc.

Other extensions are also in order, of course, and may be effected via stochastic formulations to deal with items like labor turnover and considerations of inter-sectoral and occupational mobility and employment. Growth and other phenomena which relate to demographic as well as economic dimensions will also need to be essayed but these are best left aside for subsequent treatments which can consider them separately with more explicit attention to other “quality of life” dimensions to which they are evidently related²⁵.