Abstract
In this paper, I examine the possibility of accounting for the rationality of belief-formation by utilising decision-theoretic considerations. I consider the utilities to be used by such an approach, propose to employ verisimilitude as a measure of cognitive utility, and suggest a natural way of generalising any measure of verisimilitude defined on propositions to partial belief-systems, a generalisation which may enable us to incorporate Popper's insightful notion of verisimilitude within a Bayesian framework. I examine a dilemma generated by the decision-theoretic procedure and consider an adequacy condition (immodesty) designed to ameliorate one of its horns. Finally, I argue in a sceptical vein that no adequate verisimilitude measure can be used decision-theoretically.
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I am grateful to Philip Percival for his very useful comments and criticism on earlier drafts. This paper was written with the support of a Scheuer fellowship, for which I am most thankful.
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Weintraub, R. Decision-theoretic epistemology. Synthese 83, 159–177 (1990). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00413691
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00413691