Abstract
The effects of production and consumption in the informal sectors, i.e., the black sector (illegal because of tax evasion) and the green (household) sector, are described by a macro model. Effects upon employment, balance of payments, and public deficit are considered. Empirical implementation with Danish data shows that the black and green sectors have negligible effects on the government deficit, and that activities in the green sector are much more harmful to white employment and the balance of payments than are activities in the black sector. The results indicate that formal and informal production of services — the major part of the black and green sectors — could be increased without much damage to the balance of payments and the government deficit. Whether such an increase of service production would also solve the social problems related to unemployment is more debatable, since many service jobs are likely to be considered by the public as unproductive uses of labour.
Zusammenfassung
Die Auswirkungen von Produktion und Verbrauch im informellen Sektor, also im schwarzen Sektor (Schattenwirtschaft, die wegen Steuerhinterziehung illegal ist) und im grünen Sektor (private Haushalte) werden anhand eines Makromodells beschrieben. Die Wirkungen auf die Beschäftigung, auf das Zahlungsbilanzgleichgewicht und auf die Staatsverschuldung stehen dabei im Mittelpunkt. Die empirische Analyse anhand dänischer Daten macht deutlich, daß der schwarze und der grüne Sektor zu vernachlässigende Auswirkungen auf das Haushaltsdefizit haben, sowie, daß Aktivitäten des grünen Sektors der Vollbeschäftigung und dem Zahlungsbilanzgleichgewicht im weißen Sektor weitaus mehr schaden als Aktivitäten des schwarzen Sektors.
Die Ergebnisse zeigen, daß die formelle und informelle Produktion von Dienstleistungen — Hauptbestandteil des schwarzen und grünen Sektors — ohne größeren Schaden für die Zahlungsbilanz und für das Haushaltsdefizit ausgeweitet werden könnten. Ob ein derartiger Anstieg der Dienstleistungsproduktion die mit der Arbeitslosigkeit verbundenen sozialen Probleme lösen könnte, ist fraglich. Denn die Öffentlichkeit neigt dazu, viele Dienstleistungen als unproduktive Verwendung von Arbeitskraft anzusehen.
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Hans Aage is an associate professor at the Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Studiestræde 6, DK-1455 Copenhagen K, Denmark.
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Aage, H. White, black, and green multipliers: Effects of white, black, and green sector activities on the economy and on the development of consumer services. J Consum Policy 12, 39–57 (1989). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00411388
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00411388