Differing patterns of industrial dynamics: New Zealand, Ohio, and Sweden, 1978–1994

Abstract

New Zealand, Ohio, and Sweden have experienced sharply divergent macroeconomic developments since the early 1970s. During the 1980s, New Zealand went from being the most heavily regulated and protectionist OECD country to one of the least regulated and most open economies in the world. Ohio suffered severe economic downturns when its major industries (steel, automobiles, and machinery) went through devastating crises. Since then, a major restructuring has taken place, and manufacturing output, exports, and employment have generally grown faster than in the United States as a whole. Sweden had an outstanding industrial growth record for several decades until the mid-1970s but then suffered economic setbacks from which it has not yet fully recovered. Industrial output declined for several years, resumed growth in the early 1980s but then stagnated again in the early 1990s.

The object of this paper is to study the microeconomic responses to these differences in the macroeconomic environment. While manufacturing employment declined by more than 20 percent in each country, the number of establishments in manufacturing stayed constant in Sweden while it declined by 9 percent in Ohio and more than doubled in New Zealand.

While there are certainly structural differences in the composition of the manufacturing sector in the three economies, these differences explain only a small portion of the differences in development patterns. Only a handful of 3-digit ISIC industries grew in terms of employment in each country between 1978 and 1993, but the growth industries were not the same across countries, and there were substantial differences in the growth patterns within these industries.