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Climatic factors associated with the infection of herds of cattle with bluetongue viruses

  • Virology
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Abstract

The incidence of bluetongue virus infection of 15 cattle herds in Queensland, Australia, was determined by a serum neutralization test. The maximum temperature (°C), minimum temperature (°C) and rainfall (mm) data were obtained from the meteorological recording stations closest to each herd. Using unweighted least-squares regression analysis, the best statistical model explaining the most variability in the herd incidence rate included the ratio between the maximum and minimum temperature recorded at both 1 month and 6 months preceding seroconversion, and rainfall recorded at both 2 months and 6 months preceding seroconversion. More than 90% of the variability in the incidence of bluetongue virus infection in the herds was explained by the model, a considerable improvement on previous models that used prevalence data. The prospective nature of the study also supports a strong causal relationship between climatic factors and the occurrence of infection in cattle herds.

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Abbreviations

SN:

serum neutralization

R sup2infa :

adjusted coefficient of multiple determination

AIC:

Akaike's information criterion

FPE:

Akaike's final prediction error

PRESS:

predicted sum of squares

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Queensland Department of Primary Industries, PO Box 102, 4350, Toowomba, Queensland, Australia

    M. P. Ward

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Ward, M.P. Climatic factors associated with the infection of herds of cattle with bluetongue viruses. Veterinary Research Communications 20, 273–283 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00366925

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00366925

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