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On the variability of simulated source-receptor relationships for sulfur deposition

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Abstract

The use of Lagrangian models to estimate source-receptor relationships for ambient SO4 = concentrations and S deposition has become fairly widespread over the past several years. This paper addresses the sensitivity of long-term simulations of a Lagrangian S transport and deposition model to actual variations in SO2 emissions and meteorological conditions. The variations of predicted source-receptor relationships due to (1) the inclusion of day to day variations in emissions strength as opposed to the use of the annual average daily emission rate and (2) year-to-year variations in meteorological conditions were studied to identify causes of uncertainty in a Lagrangian model. The results suggested that adding information on day to day emission variations for a specific point source resulted in variations in estimated S wet deposition of the order of only 20% within 500 km of the source.Year-to-year variations in meteorological conditions, on the other hand, resulted in variations in predicted S wet deposition of the order of 50% for some receptors. The variation in estimated source-receptor relationships for a given source/receptor combination was found to range as high as 70% over a 5-yr modeling period.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Michigan, 48109-2143, Ann Arbor, Michigan

    Perry J. Samson, Mark Fernau & Patricia Allison

Authors
  1. Perry J. Samson
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  2. Mark Fernau
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  3. Patricia Allison
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Samson, P.J., Fernau, M. & Allison, P. On the variability of simulated source-receptor relationships for sulfur deposition. Water Air Soil Pollut 30, 801–813 (1986). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00303346

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00303346

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