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Forecasting the demand for services of a New Port

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Abstract

Forecasting the demand for a port's services is usually the first step in planning a new port. The objective of this paper is to assess the available forecasting methodology. First, techniques for estimating potential foreign trade volume are surveyed. Next, we turn to the port traffic allocation model, which allows for quantitative estimates based on reasonable assumptions. Third, long run forecasting problems are discussed in detail. Finally, we survey the problems and advantages of formal modelling effort. It is concluded that, although the state-of-the-arts in modelling is not well developed, modelling remains an important part of port planning and development.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Economics, University of Hawaii, 96822, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA

    Miklius Walter (Professor)

  2. The Department of Shipping and Transportation Management, National Taiwan College of Marine Science and Technology, Keelung, Taiwan, Republic of China

    Wu Younger (Professor)

Authors
  1. Miklius Walter
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  2. Wu Younger
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Miklius, W., Wu, Y. Forecasting the demand for services of a New Port. GeoJournal 16, 295–300 (1988). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00270259

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00270259

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