Abstract
The cumulative incidence of pertussis at six years of age in the first unvaccinated cohort after cessation of immunisation in Sweden was investigated by serological methods and by a validation of the national epidemiological surveillance system by reports from the Child Health Centres (CHCs). In 312/385 (81%) eligible children, both an interview with the parents and a blood sample from the child could be obtained. The CHC reports yielded a cumulative incidence of 31%, whereas the serological assays found 54%. Of the cases reported by the parents to the CHCs, 89% were seropositives. In the additional cases of pertussis reported at the study interview, only 61% could be confirmed (p < 0.001). Among children with reported severe cough not suspected to be pertussis, 46% were seropositive, distributed as 33% seropositives in cases with cough duration of less than 4 weeks and 69% for longer coughs (p < 0.01). In the CHC reports, the parental diagnosis was found to have been confirmed in three-quarters of cases by medical personnel. The CHC reporting system was thus found to be reliable with an observed specificity of 93%, but sensitivity of only 52%. Thus, even this surveillance system, which yields the highest incidence rates, underestimates the incidence of the disease.
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Mark, A., Granström, M. Cumulative incidence of pertussis in an unvaccinated preschool cohort based on notifications, interview and serology. Eur J Epidemiol 7, 121–126 (1991). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00237354
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00237354