Abstract
A patch model was developed to characterize the effects of climate on succession of miombo dry forests of Zambezian Africa using Malawi as a case study. The model, called MIOMBO, is based on the FORSKA Version 1 gap model of forest succession by Prentice and Leemans (1990). The FORSKA model was modified to include the effects of moisture and fire; and how these affect processes of establishment, survival, growth and development. The impacts that four different GCM scenarios for a CO2 doubling might have on dynamics of a number of miombo species were analyzed. Preliminary results show a gradual increase in the basal area of the more mesic species. This result is consistent with what might be expected with increased precipitation. Tree growth and development data with associated detailed climatic data are lacking and severely limit the ability to define quantitatively how species are influenced by given levels of environmental factors (such as climate and nutrient factors), and how they might respond to seasonal changes in climate variability.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.
References
Botkin, D. B., Janak, J. F., and Wallis, J. R.: 1972, ‘Some Ecological Consequences of a Computer Model of Forest Growth’, J. Ecology 60, 849–872.
Botkin, D. B.: 1993, Forest Dynamics, An Ecological Model, Oxford University Press.
Chidumayo, E. N.: 1987, ‘Species Structure in Zambian Miombo Woodland’, J. Trop. Ecol. 3, 109–118.
Chidumayo, E. N.: 1991, ‘Seedling Development of the Miombo Woodland Tree Julbernardia globiflora’, J. Vegetation Sci. 2, 21–26.
Desanker, P. V. and Prentice, I. C.: 1994, ‘MIOMBO — A Vegetation Dynamics Model for the Miombo Woodlands of Zambezian Africa’, Forest Ecol. Management 69, 87–95.
Develice, R. L.: 1988, ‘Test of Forest Dynamics Simulator in New Zealand’, New Zealand J. Botany 26, 387–392.
Doyle, T. W.: 1981, ‘The Role of Disturbance in the Gap Dynamics of a Montane Rain Forest: An Applic ation of a Tropical Forest Succession Model’, in West, D. C., Shugart, H. H., and Botkin D. B. (eds.), Forest Succession: Concepts and Applications, Springer, New York, pp. 56–73.
Ernst, W. H. O.: 1988, ‘Seed and Seedling Ecology of Brachystegia spiciformis, a Predominant Tree Component in Miombo Woodlands in South Central Africa’, Forest Ecol. Management 25, 195–210.
Ernst, W. H. O. and Walker, B. H.: 1973, ‘Studies on the Hydrature of Trees in Miombo Woodland in South Central Africa’, J. Ecol. 61, 667–673.
Fanshawe, D. B.: 1971, The Vegetation of Zambia, Government Printer, Lusaka, 67 pp.
Friend, A. D., Shugart, H. H., and Running, S. W.: 1993, ‘A Physiologically Based Gap Model of Forest Dynamics’, Ecology 74, 792–797.
Frost, P. G. H.and Robertson, F.: 1987, ‘The Ecological Effects of Fire in Savannas’, in Walker B. H. (ed.), Determinants of Tropical Savannas, IUBS Monograph Series 3, IRL Press, Eynsham, Oxford, pp. 93–140.
Griffiths, J. F. (ed.): 1972, ‘Climates of Africa’, in Landsberg, H. E. (ed.), World Survey of Climatology, Vol. 10, Elsevier, New York, 604 pp.
Groome, J. S., Lees, H. M. N., and Wigg, L. T.: 1957, ‘A Summary of Information on Pterocarpus angolensis, Parts I and II’, Forestry Abstr. 18, 3–8, 153–162.
Hardcastle, P. D.: 1977, ‘A Preliminary Silvicultural Classification of Malawi’, Forest Research Record, No. 57, Forest Research Institute of Malawi, P.O. Box 270, Zomba, Malawi.
Hopkins, B.: 1965, ‘Observations on Savanna Burning in the Oklokemeji Forest Reserve, Nigeria’, J. Appl. Ecol. 2, 367–381.
Lauenroth, W. K.: 1996, ‘Application of Patch Models to Examine Regional Sensitivity to Climate Change’, Clim. Change 34, 155–160 (this issue).
Lawton, R. M.: 1972, An Ecological Study of Miombo and Chipya Woodland with Particular Reference to Zambia, Ph.D. Thesis, Oxford, 1972.
Lawton, R. M.: 1978, ‘A Study of the Dynamic Ecology of Zambian Vegetation’, J.Ecol. 66, 175–198.
Malaisse, F.: 1978, ‘The Miombo Ecosystem’, in Tropical Forest Ecosystems, A State-of-Knowledge Report, Natural Resources Research XIV, UNESCO, Paris, pp. 589–606.
McGregor, J.: 1994, ‘Woodland Pattern and Structure in a Peasant Farming Area of Zimbabwe: Ecological Determinants and Present and Past Use’, Forest Ecol. Management 63, 97–133.
Menaut, J. C., Gignoux, J., Prado, C., and Clobert, J.: 1990, ‘Tree Community Dynamics in a Humid Savanna of the Cote-d'Ivoire: Modelling the Effects of Fire and Competition with Grass and Neighbors’, J. Biogeogr. 17, 471–481.
Prentice, I. C. and Leemans, R.: 1991, ‘Pattern and Process and the Dynamics of Forest Structure: A Simulation Approach’, J. Ecol. 78, 340–355.
Prentice, I. C., Cramer, W., Harrison, S. P., Leemans, R., Monserud, R. A., and Solomon, A. M.: 1992, ‘A Global Biome Model Based on Plant Physiology and Dominance, Soil Properties and Climate’, J. Biogeog. 19, 117–134.
Shugart, H. H.: 1984, A Theory of Forest Dynamics, Springer, New York.
Shugart, H. H. and West, D. C.: 1977, ‘Development of an Appalachian Deciduous Forest Successional Model and its Application to Assessment of the Impact of the Chestnut Blight’, J. Environ. Manage. 5, 161–179.
Shugart, H. H. and Noble, I. R.: 1981, ‘A Computer Model of Succession and Fire Response to the High Altitude Eucalyptus Forest of the Brindabella Range, Australian Capital Territory’, Austral. J. Ecol. 6, 149–164.
Shugart, H. H., Hopkins, M. S., Burgess, I. P., and Mortlock, A. T.: 1980, ‘The Development of a Successional Model for Subtropical Ram Forest and its Application to Assess the Effects of Timber Harvest at Wiangaree State Forest, New South Wales’, J. Environ. Manage. 11, 243–265.
Shugart, H. H., Smith, T. M., and Post, W. M.: 1992, ‘The Potential for Application of Individual-Based Simulation Models for Assessing the Effects of Global Change’, Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 23, 15–38.
Schmitz, A.: 1950, ‘Principaux Types de Végétation Forestière dans le Haut-Katanga’, C. R. Trav. Congr. Sci. Elizabethville, 30 pp.
Trapnell, C. G.: 1959, ‘Ecological Results of Woodland Burning Experiments in Northern Rhodesia’, J. Ecol. 47, 129–168.
van Daalen, J. C. and Shugart, H. H.: 1989, ‘OUTENIQUA - A Computer Model to Simulate Succession in the Mixed Evergreen Forests of the Southern Cape, South Africa’, Landscape Ecol 24, 255–267.
Vermeulen, W. J.: 1990, A Monograph on Pterocarpus angolensis, SARCCUS Standing Committee for Forestry, Pretoria, South Africa.
Werger, M. J. A. and Coetzee, B. J.: 1978, ‘The Sudano-Zambezian Region’, in Werger, M. J. A. (ed.), Biogeography and Ecology of Southern Africa, Junk, The Hague, 1439 pp. (Monogr. Biol. 31), pp. 301–462.
White, F.: 1968, ‘Zambia’, Acta Phytogeogr. Suec. 54, 208–215.
White, F.: 1983, The Vegetation of Africa, Unesco, Paris, 356 pp.
Wild, H. and Barbosa, L. A. G.: 1967, Vegetation Map (1:250,000 in color) of the Flora Zambesiaca Area, Descriptive Memoir, Collins, Salisbury, Rhodesia (Suppl. to Flora Zambesiaca), 71 pp.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Desanker, P.V. Development of a MIOMBO woodland dynamics model in Zambezian Africa Using Malawi as a case study. Climatic Change 34, 279–288 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00224639
Received:
Revised:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00224639
Keywords
- Precipitation
- Environmental Factor
- Seasonal Change
- Basal Area
- Gradual Increase