Abstract
According to Nancy Cartwright, a causal law holds just when a certain probabilistic condition obtains in all “test situations” which in turn satisfy a set of background conditions. These background conditions are shown to be inconsistent and, on separate account, logically incoherent. I offer a corrective reformulation which also incorporates a strategy for problems like Hesslow's thrombosis case. I also show that Cartwright's recent argument for modifying the condition to appeal to singular causes fails.
Proposed modifications of the theory's probabilistic condition to handle effects with extreme probabilities (0 or 1) are found unsatisfactory. I propose a unified solution which also handles extreme causes. Undefined conditional probabilities give rise to three good, but non-equivalent, ways of formulating the theory. Various formulations appear in the literature. I give arguments to eliminate all but one candidate. Finally, I argue for a crucial new condition clause, and show how to extend the results beyond a simple probabilistic framework.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
CartwrightN.: 1983, ‘Causal Laws and Effective Strategies’, in How the Laws of Physics Lie, Clarendon Press, Oxford, pp. 21–43. Appeared originally in different form in Noûs 13, 419–37 (1979).
CartwrightN.: 1988(a), ‘Regular Associations & Singular Causes’, in B.Skyrms (ed.), Causation, Chance & Credence, vol. 1, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht.
CartwrightN.: 1988(b), ‘Reply to Ellery Eells’, in B.Skyrms (ed.), Causation, Chance & Credence, vol. 1, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht.
CartwrightN.: 1989, Nature's Capacities and their Measurement, Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1989.
DavisW. A.: 1988, ‘Probabilistic Theories of Causation’, in J. H. Fetzer, Probability and Causality. D. Reidel Publishing, Dordrecht, pp. 133–60.
Dupré, J.: 1988, ‘Probabilistic Causality: A Rejoinder to Ellery Eells’, typescript, Stanford.
DupréJ.: 1984, ‘Probabilistic Causality Emancipated’, in P. A.French, T. E.UehlingJr., and H. K.Wettstein (eds.) Midwest Studies in Philosophy IX: Causation and Causal Theories. University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, pp. 169–75.
DupréJ. and CartwrightN.: 1988, ‘Probability and Causality: Why Hume and Indeterminism Don't Mix’, Noûs 22, 521–36.
EellsE.: 1986, ‘Probabilistic Causal Interaction’, Philosophy of Science 53, 52–64.
EellsE.: 1987(a), ‘Cartwright and Otte on Simpson's Paradox’, Philosophy of Science 54, 233–43.
EellsE.: 1987(b), ‘Probabilistic Causality: Reply to John Dupré’, Philosophy of Science 54, 105–14.
EellsE.: 1988(a), ‘Probabilistic Causal Interaction and Disjunctive Causal Factors’, in J. H.Fetzer (ed.), Probability and Causality, D. Reidel Publishing, Dordrecht, pp. 189–210.
EellsE.: 1988(b), ‘Probabilistic Causal Levels’ in B.Skyrms (ed.), Causation, Chance & Credence, vol. 1, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp. 109–33.
EellsE. and SoberE.: 1983, ‘Probabilistic Causality and the Question of Transitivity’, Philosophy of Science 50, 35–57.
HesslowG.: 1976, ‘Two Notes on the Probabilistic Approach to Causality’, Philosophy of Science 43, 290–92.
IrzikG. and MeyerE.: 1987, ‘Causal Modeling: New Directions for Statistical Explanation’, Philosophy of Science 54, 495–514.
NeveuJ.: 1965, Mathematical Foundations of the Calculus of Probability, Holden-Day, San Francisco.
OtteR.: 1981, ‘Critique of Suppes' Theory of Probabilistic Causality’, Synthese 48, 167–89.
OtteR.: 1985, ‘Probabilistic Causality and Simpson's Paradox’, Philosophy of Science 52, 110–25.
OtteR.: 1987, ‘Indeterminism, Counterfactuals, and Causation’, Philosophy of Science 54, 45–62.
RosenD. A.: 1978, ‘In Defense of a Probabilistic Theory of Causality’, Philosophy of Science 45, 604–13.
SalmonW. C.: 1980, ‘Probabilistic Causality’, Pacific Philosophical Quarterly 61, 50–74.
SkyrmsB.: 1980, Causal Necessity, Yale University Press, New Haven.
SuppesP.: 1970, Probabilistic Theory of Causality, North Holland Publishing, Amsterdam.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Ray, G. Probabilistic causality reexamined. Erkenntnis 36, 219–244 (1992). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00217474
Received:
Revised:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00217474