Abstract
The forecasting of basic technological innovations is focused. Clarification of the involved key concepts and an analytical framework are given. The forest industry serves as a background and illustration to the discussion. Considerable uncertainty prevails with respect to strategic investments in production in this industry. Industries, technological products, etc. have empirically been shown to pass similar phases of development over time. This life cycle starts with a basic innovation following on a previous invention. Due to competetion from more recent basic innovations the final phase is one of decline. Basic innovations are suggested to be exogenously determined and to cause structural change. The choice of forecasting strategy is suggested to be made dependent on the type of innovation, knowledge base, and life cycle position.
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Brännäs, K., Zackrisson, U. On forecasting of innovations. Qual Quant 26, 95–112 (1992). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00178001
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00178001