Abstract
The recurrent pattern of some phytoplankton species can vary considerably from year to year. Recent experimental work suggests that the contamination of algal cells by viruses can serve as a regulatory mechanism in bloom dynamics. A simple trophic model is proposed that includes virus-induced mortality, and it mimics the actual bloom patterns of several species. The model results are compared to actual data by a combination of nonlinear forecasting techniques.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ascioti, A., Beltrami, E., Carroll, T., Wirick, C.: Is there chaos in plankton dynamics? J Plankt Res 15, 603–617 (1993)
Birkhoff, G., MacLane, S.: Modern Algebra, 3rd ed. New York: Macmillan, 105–109 (1965)
Bratbak, G., Egge, J., Heldal, M.: Viral mortality of the marine alga Emiliana huxleyi and termination of viral blooms. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 93, 39–48 (1993)
Ellner, S.: Detecting low dimensional Chaos in population dynamics data: a critical review. In: Logan, J., Hain, F. (eds), Chaos and Insect Biology, 63–91: University of Virginia Press, Blacksburg 1992
MacCartney, J.: Observations in luminous animals. Philas Trans Roy Soc Lond 1, 238–293 (1810)
Mena-Lorca, J., Hethcote, H.: Dynamic models of infectious diseases as regulators of population size. J Math Biol 30, 693–716 (1992)
Pool, R.: Is it chaos, or is it just noise? Science 243, 25–28 (1989)
Sugihara, G., May, R.: Nonlinear forecasting as a way of distinguishing chaos from measurement error in time series. Nature 344, 734–741 (1990)
Suttle, C., Chan, A., Cottrell, M.: Infection of phytoplankton by viruses and reduction of primary productivity. Nature 347, 467–469 (1990)
Tont, S.: Short-period climatic fluctuations: effects on diatom biomass. Science 194, 942–944 (1976)
Tsonis, A., Elsner, J.: Nonlinear prediction as a way of distinguishing chaos from random fractal sequences. Nature 358, 217–220 (1992)
Uhlig, G., Sahling, G.: Long-term studies on noctiluca scintillans in the german bight. Neth J Sea Res 25, 101–112 (1992)
Wales, D.: Calculating the rate of loss of information from chaotic time series by forecasting. Nature 350, 485–488 (1991)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Beltrami, E., Carroll, T.O. Modeling the role of viral disease in recurrent phytoplankton blooms. J. Math. Biol. 32, 857–863 (1994). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00168802
Received:
Revised:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00168802