Abstract
An experimental technique for exploring the sensitivity of transportation plan evaluations to forecasting and community value uncertainties is described. Three kinds of uncertainty — goal-achievement impacts, costs, and goal-weights — are included. Within a cost-effectiveness evaluation framework, an “on-line” capability for interactively and iteratively testing plan comparisons is outlined. A series of user-oriented computer instructions is developed to test plan comparison outcomes according to a wide variety of user-selected changes in impact forecasts, goal weights, and cost forecasts. A sample, hypothetical application of the technique is described. The technique is currently under further development by the San Diego Region Comprehensive Planning Organization.
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Stuart, D.G. Interactive sensitivity analysis in transportation plan evaluation. Transportation 3, 289–310 (1974). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00165491
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00165491