Abstract
The paper analyzes factors influencing the age of motherhood in Japan, using both cross-sectional and time-series data. Both hazard rate and time series analyses support the hypothesis that better women's earning opportunities, as indicated by their educational attainments and relative pay, encourage Japanese women to marry and become mothers later in their lives. But both these analyses indicate that the trend toward later marriage and motherhood in Japan cannot be fully accounted for by improvements in women's educational attainments and earning opportunities, and the hazard analysis indicates that the strength of the trend increases with a woman's educational attainment.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Atoh M (1988) Changes in family patterns in Japan. Paper presented at the IUSSP Seminar on Theories of Family Change, Tokyo
Cigno A, Ermisch JF (1989) A microeconomic analysis of the timing of births. Eur Econ Rev 33:737–760
Coleman S (1983) The tempo of family formation. In: Plath DW (ed) Work and lifecourse in Japan. State University of New York, Albany, pp 183–214
Cox DR (1972) Regression models and life tables (with discussion). J R Stat Soc B 34:187–220
Feeney G (1986) Period parity progression measures of fertility in Japan. NUPRI Research Paper Series No. 24. Nihon University Population Research Institute, Tokyo
Greene W (1989) LIMDEP user's manual. Econometric Software, New York, Chap 28
Happel SK, Hill JK, Low SA (1984) An economic analysis of the timing of childbirth. Popul Stud 38:298–311
Heckman J, Walker JR (1990) The third birth in Sweden. J Popul Econ 3:235–275
Hodge RW, Ogawa N (1991) Fertility change in contemporary Japan. University of Chicago Press, Chicago
Institute of Population Problems (1988) Marriage and fertility in present-day Japan. Ministry of Health and Welfare, Tokyo
Ishikawa A (1990) Trends in marital fertility of Japanese females: 1947–88 (in Japanese). J Popul Problems (Jinko Mondai Kenkyu) 194:56–66
Kalbfleisch JD, Prentice RL (1980) The statistical analysis of failure time data. Wiley, New York
Lancaster T (1991) The economic analysis of transition data. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Mason A, Ogawa N, Fukui T (1992) Household projections for Japan, 1985–2025: A transition model of headship rates. Japan Statistical Association, Nihon University Population Research Institute and the East West Center, Tokyo, Honolulu
Ministry of Education (1991) Statistical bulletin of education. Daiichi Hoki Shupan, Tokyo
Michael RT (1973) Education and the derived demand for children. J Polit Econ 81:S128-S164
Ministry of Labour (various years) Besic survey on wage structure. Rodo Horei Kyokai, Tokyo
Morgan PS, Rindfuss RR, Parnell A (1984) Modern fertility patterns: Contrasts between the United States and Japan. Popul Dev Rev 10:14–40
Oakley D (1978) American-Japanese interaction in the development of population policy in Japan. Popul Dev Rev 4:617–643
Ogawa N (1986) Internal migration in Japanese postwar development. NUPRI Research Paper Series No. 33. Nihon University Population Research Institute, Tokyo
Ogawa N (1989) Population ageing and its impact upon health resource requirements at government and familial levels in Japan. Ageing Soc 9:383–405
Ogawa N, Ermisch JF (1993) Family structure, home time demands and the employment patterns of Japanese married women. Discussion Papers in Economics. University of Glasgow Department of Political Economy, Glasgow
Ogawa N, Mason A (1986) An economic analysis of recent fertility in Japan: an application of the Butz Ward model. J Popul Stud 9:5–14
Ogawa N, Retherford RD (1993) The resumption of fertility decline in Japan: 1973–92. Popul Dev Rev 19 (in press)
Osawa M (1988) Working mothers: changing patterns of employment and fertility in Japan. Econ Dev Cult Change 36:623–650
Otani K (1988) Determinants of the decline in the total marital fertility rate in the early 1970s (in Japanese). J Popul Problems (Jinko Mondai Kenkyu) 185:36–54
Otani K (1989a) Proportional hazards model analysis of women's reproductive career in present-day Japan (in Japanese). J Popul Problems (Jinko Mondai Kenkyu) 189:1–17
Otani K (1989b) Proportional hazards model analysis of marriage and first birth probabilities (in Japanese). J Popul Problems (Jinko Mondai Kenkyu) 191:46–50
Otani K (1990) Selected time distributions in the process to marriage and pregnancy in Japan (in Japanese). J Popul Problems (Jinko Mondai Kenkyu) 193:1–16
Otani K (1991) Time distributions in the process to marriage and pregnancy in Japan. Popul Stud 45:473–487
Ozaki M (1989) Introduction and summary of the survey on the family. In: Summary of the National Opinion Survey of the Family in Japan. Nihon University, Tokyo
Phillips PCB (1986) Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics. J Economet 33:311–340
Population Problems Research Council (1990) Summary of twentieth national survey on family planning. Mainichi Newspapers, Tokyo
Preston SH, Kono S (1988) Trends in well-being of children and the elderly in Japan. In: Palmer JL, Smeeding T, Torrey B (eds) Vulnerable. The Urban Institute Press, Washington, DC, pp 277–307
Retherford RD, Ogawa N, Sakamoto S (1994) Value change and fertility change in Japan. Paper presented at the IUSSP Seminar on Value Change and Fertility Change, Sion, Switzerland
Schmidt P, Witte A (1989) Predicting criminal recidivism using “Split population” survival time models. J Economet 40:141–159
Shimada H, Higuchi Y (1985) An analysis of trends in female labor force participation in Japan. J Labor Econ 3:355–374
Statistics Bureau (1992) Major aspects of population in Japan. Abridged Report Series No. 1 for the Population Census of Japan. Japan Statistical Association, Tokyo
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
We are grateful to Shigemi Kono, former Director-General of the Institute of Population Problems, for providing us the aggregate data on the first birth probability, and the Population Problems Research Council of the Mainichi Newspapers for permitting us to use their survey data. We also thank Robert D. Retherford and two anonymous referees for helpful comments on earlier versions of the paper, Kazuichiro Iizuka and Rikiya Matsukura for their research assistance, and the American Family Life Assurance Company of Japan for its financial support for the research.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Ermisch, J., Ogawa, N. Age at motherhood in Japan. J Popul Econ 7, 393–420 (1994). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00161474
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00161474