Abstract
This paper describes a novel non-linear oscillator model of the sunspot cycle which accurately reproduces several of the observed qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the real cycle including the long term amplitude modulation pattern. The model accounts for 96% of cycle peak height variance over the period 1859 to 1980. The aim of this work is to assess the potential of such models for forecasting solar activity on decadal and possibly longer time scales. Longer term forecasts may have practical economic significance because of the growing evidence for relationships between solar cycle variations and terrestrial weather and climatic variations (Bandeen and Moran, 1975; Currie, 1980; Williams, 1981). The model predicts that cycle 22 will have an annual mean peak amplitude in the range 25 to 45, the lowest peak activity for 260 yr.
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Gregg, D.P. A nonlinear solar cycle model with potential for forecasting on a decadal time scale. Sol Phys 90, 185–194 (1984). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00153794
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00153794