Abstract
Measured and projected increases in carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere point towards a significant global warming. The regional effects of such a warming will be of primary importance in determining the social and economic consequences. Four methods of arriving at tentative regional scenarios are discussed and illustrated by application to Australia and New Zealand. Methods used include numerical modelling, extreme warm and cold year ensembles, dynamical/empirical reasoning and palaeoclimatic reconstructions from the Hypsithermal. A surprising degree of consistency is revealed between the various approaches to a scenario for a CO2-warmed Earth and the climatic conditions which prevailed during the Hypsithermal. The best overall analogy to a CO2-warmed Earth seems to be this epoch, especially as recent evidence suggests it to be one of higher CO2 concentrations. High priority should be given to further investigations using numerical models which include an interactive dynamic ocean and hydrologic cycle including variable cloudiness, as well as more detailed reconstruction of climatic conditions during the Hypsithermal in areas sensitive to any circulation changes.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Berner, W., Oeschger, H., and Stauffer, B.: 1980, ‘Information on the CO2 Cycle from Ice Core Studies’, Radiocarbon 22, 227.
Bowler, J. M.: 1971, Pleistocene Salinities and Climatic Change: Evidence from Lakes and Lunettes in South-Eastern Australia’, in Mulvaney, D. J. and Golson, J. (eds), Aboriginal Man and Environment in Australia, Aust. Nat Uni. Press, Canberra, pp. 47–65.
Bowler, J. M., Hope, G. S., Jennings, J. N., Singh, G., and Walker, D.: 1976, ‘Late Quaternary Climates of Australia and New Guinea’, Quaternary Res. 6, 359.
Bryson, R. A.: 1974, ‘A Perspective on Climatic Change’, Science 184, 753.
Budd, W. and McInnes: 1978; ‘Modelling Surging Glaciers and Periodic Surging of the Antarctic Ice Sheet’, in Pittock et al. (1978) op. cit., 228–233
Burrows, C. J.: 1979, ‘A Chronology for Cool-Climate Episodes in the Southern Hemisphere 12000–1 000 yr. BP’,Palaeogeog. Paleaoclim. and Palaeoecol. 27, 287.
Cox, J. E. and Mead, C. B.: 1963, ‘Soil Evidence Relating to Post-Glacial Climate on the Canterbury Plains’, N.Z. Ecol. Soc. Proc. 10, 28.
Churchill, D. M.: 1968, ‘The Distribution and Prehistory of Eucalyptus diversicolor F. Muell., E. Marginata Donn ex Sm., and E. Calophylla R. Br. in Relation to Rainfall’, Aust. J. Bot. 16, 125.
Costin, A. B.: 1972, ‘Carbon-14 Dates from the Snowy Mountains Area, South-Eastern Australia and Their Interpretation’, Quat. Res. 2, 579.
Coughlan, M. J.: 1979, ‘Recent Variation in Annual-Mean Maximum Temperatures over Australia’, Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc. 105, 707.
Delmas, R. J., Ascencio, J. M. and Legrand, M.: 1980, ‘Polar Ice Evidence that Atmospheric CO2 20000 yr. BP was 50% of Present’, Nature 284, 155.
Dodson, J. R.: 1974a, ‘Vegetation and Climatic History near Lake Keilambete, Western Victoria’, Aust. J. Bot. 22, 702.
Dodson, J. R.: 1974b, Vegetation History and Water Fluctuations at Lake Leake, South-Eastern South Australia. I. 10 000 BP to Present. Aust. J. Bot. 22, 719.
Dodson, J. R. and Wilson, I. B.: 1975, ‘Past and Present Vegetation of Marshes Swamp in South-Eastern South Australia’, Aust. J. Bot. 23, 123.
Flohn, H.: 1964, ‘Grundfragen der Paläoklimatologie im Lichte einer theoretischen Klimatologie’, Geol Rundschau 54, 504.
Flohn, H.: 1978, ‘Abrupt Events in Climatic History’, in Pittock et al. (1978), op. cit., 124–134
Flohn, H.: 1979, ‘A Scenario of Possible Future Climates-Natural and Manmade’, Proc. World Climate Conf., Geneva, 12–23 Feb., WMO-No. 537, 243–266.
Gates, W. L. and Cook, K. H.: 1980, ‘Preliminary Analysis of Experiments on the Climatic Effects of Increased CO2 with the OSU General Circulation Model’, Climatic Research Institute Publication 14, Oregon State University, Corvallis.
Gentilli, J.: 1971, ‘Climates of Australia and New Zealand, World Survey of Climatology, 13’, Elsevier Pub. Co., Amsterdam.
Harris, W. F.: 1951, ‘New Zealand Plants and Their Story: Clues to the Past’, N.Z. Sci. Rev. 9, 5.
Harris, W. F.: 1958, ‘Pollen-Bearing Deposits and Forest History’, in ‘The Ecology of the Hutt Valley’, N.Z. Ecol. Soc. Proc. 6, 46.
Hendy, C. H. and Wilson, A. T.: 1968, ‘Palaeoclimatic Data from Speleothems’. Nature 219, 48.
Hope, G. S.: 1974, ‘The Vegetation History from 6000 BP to Present of Wilson's Promontory, Victoria, Australia’, New Phytologist 73, 1035.
Hope, G. S.: 1976, ‘Vegetational History of Mt. Wilhelm, Papua-New Guinea’, J. Ecology 64, 627.
Hope, G. S., Peterson, J. A., Radok, U., and Allison, I.: 1976, ‘The Equatorial Glaciers of New Guinea’, A. A. Balkema, Rotterdam.
Hunt, B. G. and Wells, N. C.: 1979, ‘An assessment of the Possible Future Climatic Impact of Carbon Dioxide Increases Based on a Coupled One-Dimensional Atmospheric - Oceanic Model’, J. Geophys. Res. 84, 787.
Jacka, T. H. and Budd, W. F.: 1981, ‘Antarctic Climate Monitoring’, J. Geophys. Res. (in press).
Jennings, J. N.: 1975, Desert Dunes and Estuarine Fill in the Fitzroy Estuary North-Western Australia, Catena 2, 215.
Kelley, J. J. Jr., Weaver, D. F., and Smith, B. P.: 1968, ‘The Variation of Carbon Dioxide Under the Snow in the Arctic’, Ecology 49, 358.
Kellogg, W. W.: 1978, ‘Global Influences of Mankind on the Climate’, in J. Gribbin (ed.), Climatic Change, Cambridge Uni. Press, Cambridge, Melbourne, 205–227.
Kellogg, W. W. and Schware, R.: 1981, ‘Climatic Change and Society: Consequences of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide’, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado.
Kershaw, A. P.: 1975, 'Late Quaternary Vegetation and Climate in North-Eastern Australia, in Suggate, R. P. and Cresswell, M. M. (eds.), Roy. Soc. N.Z. Bulletin 13, Quaternary Studies, 181–187.
Lintott, W. H. and Burrows, C. J.: 1973, ‘A Pollen Diagram and Macrofossils from Kettlehole Bog, Cass, South Island, New Zealand’, N.Z. J. Bot. 11, 269.
McGlone, M. S.: 1980a, ‘Late Quaternary Vegetational History of Central North Island, New Zealand’, Ph.D. thesis, University of Canterbury, Christchurch.
McGlone, M. S.: 1980b, ‘Post-Glacial Vegetation Change in Coastal Southland’, N.Z. J. Ecol. 3, 153.
McGlone, M. S. and Topping, W. W.: 1977, ‘Aranuian (Post-Glacial) Pollen Diagrams from theTongariro Region, North Island, New Zealand’, N.Z. J. of Bot. 15, 749.
McIntyre, D. J. and McKellar, I. C.: 1970, ‘A Radiocarbon Dated Post-Glacial Pollen Profile from Swampy Hill, Dunedin, New Zealand’, N.Z. J. Geol. Geophys. 13, 346.
MacPhail, M. K.: 1979, ‘Vegetation and Climates in Southern Tasmania Since the Last Glaciation’, Quat. Res. 11, 306.
Manabe, S. and Stouffer, R. J.: 1979, ‘A CO2-Climate Sensitivity Study with a Mathematical Model of the Global Climate’, Nature 282, 491.
Manabe, S. and Stouffer, R. J.: 1980, ‘Sensitivity of a Global Climate Model to an Increase of CO2 Concentration in the Atmosphere’, J. Geophys. Res. 85, 5529.
Manabe, S. and Wetherald, R. T.: 1975, ‘The Effects of Doubling the CO2 Concentration on the Climate of a General Circulation Model’, J. Atmos. Sci. 32, 3.
Manabe, S. and Wetherald, R. T.: 1980, ‘On the Distribution of Climate Change Resulting from an Increase in CO2 Content of the Atmosphere’, J. Atmos. Sci. 37, 99.
Martin, H. A. and Peterson, J. A.: 1978, ‘Eustatic Sea-Level Changes and Environmental Gradients’, InPittock et al. (1978), cop. cit. 108–124
Mercer, J. H.: 1978, ‘West Antarctic Ice Sheet and CO2 Greenhouse Effect: a Threat of Disaster’, Nature 282, 321.
Moar, N. T.: 1971, ‘Contributions to the Quaternary History of the New Zealand Flora. 6. Aranuian Pollen Diagrams from Canterbury, Nelson and North Westiand, South Island’, N.Z. J. of Bot. 9, 80.
Moar, N. T.: 1973, ‘Contributions to the Quaternary History of the New Zealand Flora. 7. Two Aranuian Pollen Diagrams from Central South Island’. N.Z. J. of Bot. 11, 291.
Namias, J.: 1980, ‘Some Concomitant Regional Anomalies Associated with Hemispherically Averaged Temperature Variations’, J. Geophys. Res. 85, 1585.
NAS: 1979, ‘Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment’, National Academy of Sciences, Climate Research Board, Washington D. C.
Pearman, G. I. (ed.): 1980, Carbon Dioxide and Climate: Australian Research, Australian Academy of Science, Canberra. 217 pp.
Pittock, A. B.: 1973, ‘Global Meridional Interactions in Stratosphere and Troposphere’, Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc. 99, 424.
Pittock, A. B.: 1975, ‘Climatic Change and the Patterns of Variation in Australian Rainfall’, Search 6, 498.
Pittock, A. B., Bigg, E. K., Fraser, P. J. B., Galbally, L. E., Hunt, B. G., Hyson, P., Kulkarni, R. N., and Pearman, G. I.: 1981, ‘Human Impact on the Global Atmosphere: Implications for Australia’, Search 12, 260.
Pittock, A. B., Frakes, L. A., Jensenn, D., Peterson, J. A., and Zillman, J. W.: 1978, ‘Climatic Change and Variability: A Southern Perspective’, Cambridge Uni. Press, Melbourne.
Salinger, M. J.: 1979, ‘New Zealand Climate: The Temperature Record, Historical Data, and Some Agricultural Implications’, Climatic Change 2, 109.
Salinger, M. J.: 1980, ‘New Zealand Climate. I. Precipitation Patterns’, Monthly Weather Rev. 108, 1892.
Schneider, S. H. and Thompson, S. L.: 1981, ‘Atmospheric CO2 and Climate: Importance of the Transient Response’, J. Geophys. Res. 86, 3135.
Singh, G.: 1981, ‘Late Quaternary Pollen Records and Seasonal Palaeoclimatology of Lake Frome, South Australia’, in W. D. Williams (ed.),Athalassic Salt Lakes, Junk, The Hague (in press).
Singh, G., Opdyke, N. D., and Bowler, J. M.: 1981, Late Cenozoic stratigraphy, palaeomagnetic chronology and vegetational history from Lake George, Australia, Dept. of Biogeog. and Geomorph., A.N.U., Canberra (in press).
Smagorinsky, J.: 1963, ‘General Circulation Experiments With the Primitive Equations. Appendix B: A non-dimensional Form of the Baroclinic Instability Criterion’, Monthly Weather Rev. 91, 490.
Trenberth, K. E.: 1976, ‘Fluctuations and Trends in Indices of the Southern Hemisphere Circulation’, Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc. 102, 65.
Troup, A. J.: 1965, ‘The Southern Oscillation’, Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc. 91, 490.
Walker, D. and Flenley, J. R.: 1979, ‘Late Quaternary Vegetational History of the Enga Province of Upland Papua-New Guinea’, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. London B 286, 265.
Wardle, P. and McKellar, M. H.: 1978, ‘Nothofagus Menziesii Leaves Dated at 7490 yr BP in Till-Like Sediments at Milford Sound, New Zealand’, N.Z. J. Bot. 16, 153.
Wigley, T. M. L., Jones, P. D., and Kelly, P. M.: 1980, ‘Scenario for a Warm, High-CO2 World’, Nature 283, 17.
Williams, J. (ed).: 1978, Carbon Dioxide, Climate and Society, Pergamon Press, New York.
Williams, J.: 1980, ‘Anomalies in Temperature and Rainfall During Warm Arctic Seasons as a Guide to the Formulation of Climate Scenarios, Climatic Change 2, 249.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Pittock, A.B., Salinger, M.J. Towards regional scenarios for a CO2-warmed Earth. Climatic Change 4, 23–40 (1982). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00143190
Received:
Revised:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00143190