Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Agricultural adaptation to climatic variation

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Assumptions underlying impact assessments of climatic change for agriculture are explored conceptually and empirically. Variability in climatic conditions, the relevance of human decision-making, and the role of non-climatic forces are reviewed and captured in a model of agricultural adaptation to climate. An empirical analysis of farmers' decisions in light of variations in climate and other forces is based on a survey of 120 farm operators in southwestern Ontario. Many farmers were affected by variable climatic conditions over a six-year-period, and some undertook strategic adaptations in their farm operations. Frequency of dry years was the key climatic stimulus to farming adaptations. However, only 20 percent of farmers were sufficiently influenced by climatic conditions to respond with conscious changes in their farm operations.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Arthur, L. M. and Van Kooten, G. C.: 1992, ‘Climate Impacts on the Agribusiness Sectors of a Prairie Economy’, Prairie Forum 17 (1), 97–109.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blasing, T. J. and Solomon, A. M.: 1984, ‘Response of the North American Corn Belt to Climate Warming’, Progress in Biometeorol. 3, 311–321.

    Google Scholar 

  • Borchert, J. R.: 1971, ‘The Dust Bowl in the 1970s’, Ann. Ass. Amer. Geographers 61, 1–22.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brklacich, M. and Smit, B.: 1992, ‘Implications of Changes in Climatic Averages and Variability on Food Production Opportunities in Ontario, Canada’, Climatic Change 20, 1–21.

    Google Scholar 

  • Burton, I., Kates, R. W., and White, G. F.: 1993, The Environment as Hazard, Guilford Press, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Butzer, K. W.: 1980, ‘Adaptation to Global Environmental Change’, Professional Geographer 32, 269–278.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carter, T. R., Porter, J. H., and Parry, M. L.: 1991, ‘Climatic Warming and Crop Potential in Europe’, Global Environ. Change 1 (4), 291–311.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carter, T. R., Parry, M. L., Harasawa, H., and Nishioka, S.: 1994, IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations, WMO/UNEP, Geneva.

    Google Scholar 

  • Changnon, S.: 1989, ‘Climate Change and Water Use in Agriculture’, in Drought and Climate Change, Research Report 89–02, Midwestern Climate Center, Champain, IL, pp. 6–16.

    Google Scholar 

  • Darwin, R., Tsigas, M., Lewandroski, J., and Raneses, A.: 1995, World Agriculture and Climate Change Economic Adaptations, Agricultural Economic Report No. 703, U.S. Dept. of Agricutture, Washington, D.C.

    Google Scholar 

  • De Vries, J.: 1985, ‘Analysis of Historical Climate Society Interaction’, in R. W. Kates et al. (eds.), Climate Impact Assessment: Studies of The Interaction of Climate and Society, SCOPE 27, Wiley, New York, pp. 273–292.

    Google Scholar 

  • Downing, T.: 1992, Climate Change and Vulnerable Places: Global Food Security and Country Studies in Zimbabwe, Kenya, Senegal and Chile, Research Report No. 1, Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford.

  • Easterling, W. E., McKenney, M. S., Rosenberg, N. J., and Lemon, K. M.: 1992a, ‘Simulations of Crop Response to Climate Change: Effects with Present Technology and No Adjustments’, (The ‘Dumb Farmer’ Scenario), Agricultural and Forest Meteorol. 59, 53–73.

    Google Scholar 

  • Easterling, W. E., Rosenberg, N. J., Lemon, K. M., and McKenney, M. S.: 1992b, ‘Simulations of Crop Responses to Climate Change: Effects with Present Technology and Currently Available Adjustments: The “Smart Farmer” Scenario’, Agricultural and Forest Meteorol. 59, 75–102.

    Google Scholar 

  • Easterling, W. E., Crosson, P. R., Rosenberg, N. J., McKenney, M. S., Katz, L. A., and Lemon, K. M.: 1993, ‘Agricultural Impacts of and Responses to Climate Change in the Missouri-Iowa-Nebraska-Kansas Region’, Climatic Change 24 (1–2), 23–62.

    Google Scholar 

  • Flora, C. B.: 1992, ‘Building Sustainable Agriculture: A New Application of Farming Systems Research and Extension’, J. Sustainable Agricult. 2, 37–50.

    Google Scholar 

  • Glantz, M. H.: 1991, ‘The Use of Analogies in Forecasting Ecological and Societal Responses to Global Warming’, Environment 33 (5), 10–33.

    Google Scholar 

  • Green, G. P. and Hefferman, W. D.: 1987, ‘Soil Erosion and Perception of the Problem’, J. Rural Studies 3, 151–157.

    Google Scholar 

  • Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J., and Ephraums, J. J. (eds.): 1990, Climate Change: The I.P.C.C. Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ikerd, J. E.: 1991, ‘A Decision Support System for Sustainable Farming’, Northeastern J. Agricult. Resource Economics 20, 109–113.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ilbery, B. W.: 1985, Agricultural Geography - A Social and Economic Analysis, Oxford University Press, Oxford.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kaiser, H. M., Riha, S. J., Wilks, D. S., and Sampath, R.: 1993, ‘Adaptation to Global Climate Change at the Farm Level’, in Kaiser, H. M. and Drennen, T. E. (eds.), Agricultural Dimensions of Global Climate Change, St. Lucie Press, Delray Beach, FL.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kane, S., Reilly, J., and Tobey, J.: 1992, ‘An Empirical Study of the Economic Effects of Climate Change on World Agriculture’, Climatic Change 21, 17–35.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kates, R. W.: 1985, ‘The Interaction of Climate and Society’, in Kates, K. W., Ausubel, J. H., and Berberian, M. (eds.), Climate Impact Assessment: Studies in the Interaction of Climate and Society, Wiley, Chichester, pp. 3–36.

    Google Scholar 

  • Klein, K. K., Kulshreshtha, S. N., and Klein, S. A.: 1989, ‘Agricultural Drought Impact Evaluation Model: Description of Components’, Agricult. Systems 30, 117–138.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kunreuther, H. and Slovic, P.: 1986, ‘Decision Making in Hazard and Resource Management’, in Kates, R. W. and Burton, I. (eds.), Decision Making in Hazard and Resource Management: Themes from the Work of Gilbert White, Vol. 2, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp. 153–183.

    Google Scholar 

  • Liverman, D. M.: 1986, ‘The Response of a Global Food Model to Possible Climate Changes: A Sensitivity Analysis’, J. Climatol. 6, 355–373.

    Google Scholar 

  • Liverman, D. M.: 1987, ‘Forecasting the Impact of Climate on Food Systems: Model Testing and Linkage’, Climatic Change 11, 267–285.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lockeretz, W.: 1981, ‘The Dust Bowl: Its Relevance to Contemporary Environmental Problems’, in Lawson, M. P. and Baker, M. E. (eds.) The Great Plains: Perspectives and Prospects, University of Nebraska Press, Lincoln, pp. 11–34.

    Google Scholar 

  • McNabb, D. B.: 1992, Agricultural Sensitivity to Climate Change and Variability in Southern Ontario, unpublished M.A. Thesis, Departartment of Geography, University of Guelph, Guelph.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mearns, L. W. and Rosenzweig, C.: 1994, ‘Use of a Rested Regional Climate Model with Changed Daily Variability of Precipitation and Temperature to Test Related Sensitivity of Dynamic Crop Models’, Preprints of the AMS Fifth Symposium on Global Change Studies, American Meteorological Society.

  • Newman, J. E.: 1980, ‘Climate Change Impacts on the Growing Season of the North American Corn Belt’, Biometeorology 7, 128–142.

    Google Scholar 

  • Palm, R.: 1990, Natural Hazards: An Integrative Framework for Research and Planning, Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore.

    Google Scholar 

  • Parry, M. L. and Carter, T. R.: 1985, ‘The Effects of Climatic Variability on Agricultural Risk’, Climatic Change 7, 95–110.

    Google Scholar 

  • Parry, M. L. and Carter, T. R.: 1988, ‘The Assessment of Effects of Climate Variations on Agriculture; Aims, Methods and Summary of Results’, in Parry, M. L., Carter, T. R., and Konijn, N. T. (eds.), The Impacts of Climate Variations on Agriculture, Vol. 1, D. Reidel Publ. Co., Dordrecht.

    Google Scholar 

  • Parry, M. L., Carter, T. R., and Konijn, N. T. (eds.): (1988), The Impacts of Climate Variations on Agriculture, Vol. 1, Reidel, Dordrecht.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reilly, J.: 1994, ‘Crops and Climate Change’, Nature 367, 118–119.

    Google Scholar 

  • Riebsame, W. E.: 1988, Assessing the Social Implications of Climatic Fluctuations: A Guide to Climate Impact Studies, University of Colorado, Boulder.

    Google Scholar 

  • Riebsame, W. E.: 1990, ‘The United States Great Plains’, in Turner, B. L., Clark, W. C., Kates, R. W., Richards, J. F., Mathews, J. F., and Myers, W. B. (eds.), The Earth as Transformed by Human Action, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosenberg, N. J.: 1986, ‘Adaptations to Adversity: Agriculture, Climate, and the Great Plains of North America’, Great Plains Quarterly 6, 202–217.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosenberg, N. J., Crosson, P. R., Frederick, K. D., Easterling, W. E., McKenney, M. S., Bowes, M. D., Sedjo, R. A., Darmstadter, J., Katz, L. A., and Lemon, K. M.: 1993, ‘The MINK Methodology: Background and Baseline’, Climatic Change 24 (1), 7–22.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig, C.: 1985, ‘Potential CO2-Induced Climatic Effects on North American Wheat Producing Regions’, Climatic Change 7, 367–389.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig, C. and Parry, M. L.: 1994, ‘Potential Impact of Climate Change on World Food Supply’, Nature 367, 133–138.

    Google Scholar 

  • Saarinen, T. F.: 1966, Perception of the Drought Hazard on the Great Plains, Research Paper No. 106, Department of Geography, University of Chicago, Chicago.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sheskin, I. M.: 1985, Survey Research for Geographers, American Association of Geographers, Washington, D.C.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smit, B.: 1991, ‘Decisions in Agriculture in the Face of Uncertainty: The Role of Climate Impact Assessment’, in Dzikowski, P. (ed.), Changing Climate in Relation to Sustainable Agriculture, ECA/CSAM, Fredericton.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smit, B. (ed.): 1993, Adaptation to Climatic Variability and Change: Report of the Task Force on Climate Adaptation, Prepared for the Canadian Climate Program, Department of Geography Occasional Paper No. 19, University of Guelph, Guelph.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smit, B.: 1994, ‘Climate, Compensation and Agriculture’, in McCulloch, J. and Etkin, D. (eds.), Improving Responses to Atmospheric Extremes: The Role of Insurance and Compensation, Workshop Proceedings, The Climate Institute, Toronto.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smit, B. and Smithers, J.: 1992, ‘Adoption of Soil Conservation Practices: An Empirical Analysis in Ontario Canada’, Land Degradation and Rehabilitation 3, 1–14.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smit, B. and Smithers, J.: 1993, ‘Sustainable Agriculture: Interpretations, Analyses, and Prospects’, Canadian J. Regional Sci. 16 (3), 499–524.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smit, B., Brklacich, M., Stewart, R. B., McBride, R., Brown, M., and Bond, D.: 1989, ‘Sensitivity of Crop Yields and Land Resource Potential to Climatic Change in Ontario, Canada’, Climatic Change 14, 153–174.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smithers, J.: 1994, Agricultural Adjustment to Climatic Variability, unpublished Ph.D. Dissertation, Department of Geography, University of Guelph, Guelph.

    Google Scholar 

  • Timmerman, P.: 1989, ‘Everything Else Will Not Remain Equal: The Challenge of Social Research in the Face of Global Climate Warming’, in Report of the First U.S.-Canada Symposium on Impacts of Climate Change on the Great lakes Basin, Joint Report No. 1, National Climate Program Office/Canadian Climate Centre.

  • Turner, B. L. and Brush, S. B.: 1987, Comparative Farming Systems, Guilford Press, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • United Nations Environment Program (UNEP): 1993, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, IUCC/UNEP, Geneva.

    Google Scholar 

  • Warrick, R. A.: 1980, ‘Drought in the Great Plains: A Case Study of Research on Climate and Society in the U.S.A.’, in Ausubel, J. and Biswas, A. K. (eds.), Climatic Constraints and Human Activities, Pergamon, New York, pp. 93–123.

    Google Scholar 

  • Warrick, R. A.: 1984, ‘The Possible Impacts on Wheat Production of a Reoccurrence of the 1930's Drought in the U.S. Great Plains’, Climate Change 6, 5–26.

    Google Scholar 

  • Warrick, R. A., Gifford, R. M., and Parry, M. L.: 1986, ‘CO2, Climatic Change and Agriculture’, in Bolin, B., Doos, B. R., Jager, J., and Warrick, R. A. (eds.), The Greenhouse Effect Climate Change and Ecosystems, Wiley, Chichester, pp. 393–474.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wheaton, E. E., Arthur, L. M., Chorney, B., Shewchuk, S., Thorpe, J., Whiting, J., and Wittrock, V.: 1990, Environmental and Economics Impacts of the 1988 Drought with Saskatchewan and Manitoba: Executive Summary, SRC Publ. No. E-2330–4-E-90, Saskatchewan Research Council, Saskatoon.

    Google Scholar 

  • Williams, G. D. V., Fautley, R. A., Jones, K. H., Stewart, R. B., and Wheaton, E. E.: 1988, ‘Estimating Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture in Saskatchewan, Canada’, in Parry, M. L., Carter, T. R., and Konijn, N. T. (eds.), The Impacts of Climatic Variations on Agriculture, Vol. 1: Assessments in Cool, Temperate, and Cold Regions, Kluwer Acad. Publ., Dordrecht.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yoshino, M. M., Horie, T., Seino, H., Tsujii, H., Uchijima, T., and Ychijima, Z.: 1988, ‘The Effects of Climatic Variations on Agriculture in Japan’, in Parry, M. L., Carter, T. R., and Konijn, N. T. (eds.), The Impact of Climatic Variations on Agriculture, Vol. 1, Assessment in Cool Temperate and Cold Regions, D. Reidel Publ. Co., Dordrecht, pp. 788–868.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, University of Guelph, N1G 2W1, Guelph, ON, Canada

    B. Smit

  2. Impact Assessment Centre, Carleton University, K1S 5B6, Ottawa, ON, Canada

    D. McNabb

  3. Faculty of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, N1G 2W1, Guelph, ON, Canada

    J. Smithers

Authors
  1. B. Smit
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. D. McNabb
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. J. Smithers
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Smit, B., McNabb, D. & Smithers, J. Agricultural adaptation to climatic variation. Climatic Change 33, 7–29 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00140511

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00140511

Keywords

Search

Navigation