Abstract
This paper describes a simulation study of some of the socio-economic consequences of a rise in sea level on Dutch society. A computer simulation model for the greenhouse problem has been developed, which tries to capture the climate change cause-effect relationship for a combination of greenhouse-gas emissions. The impact of emissions of greenhouse gases on global temperature and sea-level rise can be calculated using the model. Additionally, separate, independent modules have been implemented in order to quantify the socio-economic consequences for the Netherlands. Four consistent sets of scenarios have been developed, based on differences in economic growth, energy use, international environmental measures, etc. On the basis of these scenarios estimates are made of the costs of coastal defence and water management in the Netherlands as a result of adaptation to the impacts of sea-level rise.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abrahamse, A. H., Baarnse, G., and Beek, E. van: 1982a, Policy Analysis of Water Management for the Netherlands, Vol. 11, Rijkswaterstaat, Government Printing Office, 's Gravenhage, The Netherlands.
Abrahamse, A. H., Baarnse, G., and Beek, E. van: 1982b, Policy Analysis of Water Management for the Netherlands, Vol. 12, Rijkswaterstaat, Government Printing Office, 's Gravenhage, The Netherlands.
Abrahamse, A. H., Baarnse, G., and Beek, E. van: 1982c, Policy Analysis of Water Management for the Netherlands, Vol. 16, Rijkswaterstaat, Government Printing Office, 's Gravenhage, The Netherlands.
Barnett, T. P.: 1983, ‘Recent Changes in Sea Level and Their Possible Causes’, Climatic Change 5, 15- 38.
Barnett, T. P.: 1985, in McCracken, M. C. and Luther, F. M. (eds.), Detecting the Climatic Effect of Increasing Carbon Dioxide, US Department of Energy, Washington D.C., pp. 91–107.
Barth, M. C. and Titus, J. G.: 1984, Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise: A Challenge for This Generation, Van Nostrand Rheinhold Company Inc., New York.
Beafort, G. A., Baarse, G., Pluym, M., Roelse, P., and Peerholte, E. B.: 1989, ‘Beach and Dune Depletion’ (in Dutch), Coastal Defence after 1990, Technical Report 11, Rijkswaterstaat, The Netherlands.
Bruggeman, G. A.: 1988a, Note Concerning the Salt Intrusion in the New Waterway, RIVM, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Bruggeman, G. A.: 1988b, Increase in Salt Seepage along the Dutch Coast with a Sea Level Rise (Global Approach), RTVM, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Central Planning Bureau: 1984, Dutch Economy in the Long Term; Three Scenarios for the Period 1985–2010 (in Dutch), The Netherlands.
Dantzig, D. van: 1956, ‘Economic Decision Problems for Flood Prevention’, Econometrica 24, 276–287.
Delta Commission: 1960, Final Report and Interim Advice, Part 1 (in Dutch), Government Printing Office, 's Gravenhage, The Netherlands, p. 56 f.
Dillingh, D., Graaf, J. van de, Vellinga, P., and Visser, C.: 1984, Guide for the Assessment of the Safety of Dunes as Dams (in Dutch), Technical Advice Commission for the Coastal Defence, Government Printing Office,'s Gravenhage, The Netherlands.
Edmonds, J. A. and Reilly, J. M.: 1986, The Long-Term Global Energy-CO Model: PC-Version A84PC, Carbon Dioxide Information Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.
Elzen, M. G. J. den and Rotmans, J.: 1988, Simulation Model for the Socio-Economic Consequences of the Greenhouse Effect for the Netherlands (in Dutch), report no. 758471008, RIVM, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Elzen, M. G. J. den, Rotmans, J. and Vrieze, O. J.: 1990, ‘Mathematical Models for Strategic Dike Raising’, in preparation.
Eversdijk, P. J.: 1989, ‘Hard Coastal Defense, Sea Dikes, Harbour Areas and Beach Walls as Dams’ (in Dutch), Coastal Defense after 1990, Technical Report 16, Rijkswaterstaat, The Netherlands.
Gornitz, V, Lebedeff, L., and Hansen, J.: 1982, ‘Global Sea Level Trend in the Past Century’, Science 215, 1611–1614.
IPCC: 1990a, Scientific Assessment of Climate Change, Science Group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
IPCC: 1990b, Emissions Scenarios of the Response Strategies Working Group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Expert Group on Emission Scenarios.
Jong, C. H. de: 1985, The Desired Safety against Flooding from an Economic Point of View (in Dutch), Rijkswaterstaat, The Netherlands.
Jong, C. H. de: 1986, The Safety of the Netherlands in Case of Large Sea-Level Rise (A Preliminary Study) (in Dutch), Rijkswaterstaat, The Netherlands.
Knoester, D., Baarse, G., Kuik, A. J., and Louisse, C. J.: 1989, ‘Systematic Model’ (in Dutch), Coastal Defense after 1990, Technical Report 17, Rijkswaterstaat, The Netherlands.
Oerlemans, J.: 1982, ‘Response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to a Climatic Warming: A Model Study’, Journal of Climatology 2, 1–11.
Oerlemans, J.: 1989, ‘A Projection of Future Sea Level Rise’, Climatic Change 15, 151–174.
Olsthoorn, T. N.: 1987, Integrated Environmental Modelling, Definition (in Dutch), RIVM, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Pulles, J. W.: 1985, Policy Analysis for Water Management in the Netherlands (PAWN) (in Dutch), Rijkswaterstaat,'s Gravenhage, The Netherlands.
Rijkswaterstaat: 1989, ‘Survey Technical Foundation Discussion Paper Coastal Defense’ (in Dutch), Coastal Defense after 1990, Technical Report 0, Rijkswaterstaat, The Netherlands.
Ronde, J. G. de: 1988, What Will Happen to the Netherlands if Sea Level Rise Accelerates, Rijkswaterstaat, The Netherlands.
Ronde, J. G. de and Vogel, J. A.: 1988, ‘Sea-Level Rise, Hydrometeorological Scenarios’ (in Dutch), Coastal Defense after 1990, Technical Report 6, Rijkswaterstaat, The Netherlands.
Rotmans, J., Boois, H. de and Swart, R. J.: 1990, An Integrated Model for the Assessent of the Greenhouse Effect: The Dutch Approach’, Climatic Change 16, 331–355.
Rotmans, J.: 1990a, ‘Sea Level Rise Potentials’, in Targets and Indicators, Report of Working Group II of the Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Rotmans, J.: 1990b, ‘IMAGE, An Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect’, Thesis, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
Stive, M. J. F.: 1989, ‘Coastal Prediction Development Coastline 1990–2090’ (in Dutch), Coastal Defense after 1990, Technical Report 5, Rijkswaterstaat, The Netherlands.
Vrijling, J. K.: 1985, Some Thoughts about an Acceptable Risk Level in the Netherlands, Technical Advice Commission for the Coastal Defense, Government Printing Office, 's Gravenhage, The Netherlands.
Wigley, T. M. L.: 1987, ‘Relative Contributions of Different Trace Gases to the Greenhouse Effect’, Climate Monitor 16, 14–18.
Wind, H. G.: 1987, Impact of Sea Level Rise on Society, A. A. Balkema, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Den Elzen, M.G.J., Rotmans, J. The socio-economic impact of sea-level rise on the Netherlands: A study of possible scenarios. Climatic Change 20, 169–195 (1992). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00139838
Received:
Revised:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00139838