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Problems of points of inflection in trend functions as described by a model for the forecast of brand shares

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Abstract

Trends often have special points of uncertainty (surprises) which make forecasts by trend extrapolation impossible. Such points of uncertainty are found especially at points of inflection of functions. In many cases it will be possible to decompose the trend to be forecast into two or more (causal) time series which have no points of inflection. By extrapolating these individual time series it will then be possible to predict the trajectory of the trend function inclusive of the point of inflection. This method is represented and critically discussed by means of an example for the forecast of a brand share.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institut für Konsum-und Verhaltensforschung Universität des Saarlandes, Saarbrücken, Germany

    Werner Kroeber-Riel & Sighard Roloff

Authors
  1. Werner Kroeber-Riel
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  2. Sighard Roloff
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Werner Kroeber-Riel, Dr. rer. pol., is full professor of business and head of the Institute for Research in Consumption and Behavior at the University of the Saar in Saarbrücken.

Sighard Roloff is a certified mathematician and assistant at the Institute for Research in Consumption and Behavior at the University of the Saar in Saarbrücken.

This contribution first appeared under the title: ‘Zur Problematik von Wendepunkten in Trendfunktionen, dargestellt an einem Modell zur Prognose von Marktanteilen’, Zeitschrift für betriebswirtschaftliche Forschung 24 (1972) 294–300.

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Kroeber-Riel, W., Roloff, S. Problems of points of inflection in trend functions as described by a model for the forecast of brand shares. Theor Decis 3, 222–230 (1973). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00139504

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00139504

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