Abstract
Climates, ecosystems, and societies interact over a tremendous range of temporal and spatial scales. Scholarly work on climate impacts has tended to emphasize different questions, variables, and modes of explanation depending on the primary scale of interest. Much of the current debate on cause and effect, vulnerability, marginality, and the like stems from uncritical or unconscious efforts to transfer experience, conclusions, and insights across scales. This paper sketches a perspective from which the relative temporal and spatial dimensions of climatic, ecological, and social processes can be more clearly perceived, and their potential interactions more critically evaluated. Quantitative estimates of a variety of characteristic scales are derived and compared, leading to specific recommendations for the design of climate impact studies.
References
Barnett, T.P. and Patzert, W.C.: 1980, ‘Scales of Thermal Variability in the Tropical Pacific’, J. Phys. Oceanogr. 10, 529–540.
Bolin, B. and Cook, R.B. (eds.): 1983, The Major Biogeochemical Cycles and Their Interactions (SCOPE 21), John Wiley, Chichester, U.K.
Braudel, F.: 1972, ‘History and the Social Sciences’, in P. Burke (ed.), Economy and Society in Early Modern Europe, Harper and Row, New York, pp. 11–42.
Burton, I., Kates, R.W., and White, G.F.: 1978, The Environment as Hazard, Oxford University Press, New York.
Chisholm, M.: 1980, ‘The Wealth of Nations’, Trans. Inst. Br. Geogr., New Ser. 5, 255–275.
Clark, W.C.: 1985, ‘Scale Relationships in the Interactions of Climates, Ecosystems, and Societies’, in K.C.Land and S.H.Schneider (eds.), Proceedings of Conference an Forecasting in the Social and Natural Sciences, Boulder, Colorado, June 10–13 (in press).
Clark,W.C., Jones, D.D., and Holling, C.S.: 1978, ‘Patches, Movements, and Population Dynamics in Ecological Systems: A Terrestrial Perspective’, in J.H.Steele (1978a), pp. 385–432.
Cliff, A.D. and Ord, J.K.: 1975, ‘Model Building and the Analysis of Spatial Pattern in Human Geography’, J. R. Statist. Soc., Ser. B 37, 297–348.
Cook, K.H.: 1984, ‘Time-Dependent Response of Climate to Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide’, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Cärolina State University, Raleigh.
Cooper, C.F.: 1982, ‘Food and Fiber in a World of Increasing Carbon Dioxide’, in W.C. Clark (ed.), Carbon Dioxide Review, Oxford University Press, New York, pp. 299–323.
Curry, L. and Bannister, G.: 1974, ‘Township Populations of Ontario 1971–2001 for Time-Space Covariances’, in L.S. Burne et al. (eds.), Towards an Urban Future for Central Canada, University of Toronto Press, Toronto, pp. 39–59.
Cushing, D.H.: 1982, Climate and Fisheries, Academic Press, New York and London.
Doran, C.F. and Parsons, W.: 1980, ‘War and the Cycle of Relative Power’, Am. Pol. Sci. Rev. 74, 947–965.
Emanuel, W.R., Shugart, H.H., and Stevenson, M.P.: 1985, ‘Climatic Change and the Broad-Scale Distribution of Terrestrial Ecosystem Complexes’, Climatic Change 7, 29–43 (this issue).
Emlin, J.M.: 1973, Ecology: An Evolutionary Approach, Addison-Wesley, Reading, Massachusetts.
Flohn, H.: 1980, ‘Climatic Variability and Coherence in Time and Space’, in W. Bach, J. Pankrath, and S.H. Schneider (eds.), Food-Climate Interactions, D. Reidel, Dordrecht, Holland, pp. 423–441.
Ford, M.J.: 1982, Changing Climate: Responses of the Natural Flora and Fauna, Allen and Unwin, London.
Garcia, R.: 1981, Drought and Man: The 1972 Case History. Vol. 1: Nature Pleads Not Guilty, Pergamon, New York.
Granger, C.W.: 1975, ‘Aspects of the Analysis and Interpretation of Temporal and Spatial Data’, The Statistician 24, 197–210.
Haggett, P.: 1964, ‘Regional and Local Components in the Distribution of Forested Areas in Southeast Brazil: A Multivariate Approach’, Geogrl. J. 130, 365–378.
Haggett, P.: 1976, ‘Hybridizing Alternative Models of an Epidemic Diffusion Process’, Econ. Geogr. 52, 136–146.
Haury,L.R., McGowan, J.A., and Weibe, P.H.: 1978, ‘Patterns and Processes in the Time-Space Scales of Plankton Distribution’, in J.H. Steele (1978a), pp. 277–328.
Hewitt, K. (ed.): 1983, Interpretations of Calamity, Allen and Unwin, London.
Holdgate, M.W., Kassas, M., and White, G.F.: 1982, The World Environment 1972–1982, Tycooly International, Dun Langhaire, Ireland.
Holling, C.S.: 1985, ‘Terrestrial Ecosystems: Local Surprise and Global Change’, in T.F. Malone and J.G. Roederer (eds.), Global Change, Symposium Proceedings of 20th General Assembly Meeting of International Council of Scientific Unions, Ottawa, Canada, September 25, 1984, ICSU Press, Paris.
Holton, J.R.: 1972, An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology, Academic Press, New York.
Hutchinson, G.E.: 1953, ‘The Concept of Pattern in Ecology’, Proc. Acad. Natl. Sci, 105, 1–12.
Jäger, J.: 1983, Climate and Energy Systems, John Wiley, Chichester, U.K.
Jones, P.D. and Wigley, T.M.L.: 1980, ‘Northern Hemisphere Summer Temperatures, 1881–1979’, Climate Monitor 9, 43–47.
Kates, R.W., Ausubel, J., and Berberian, M. (eds.): 1984, Improving the Science of Climate Impact Assessment, John Wiley, New York (in press).
Kauppi, P., Kauppi, P.and Posch, M.: 1985, ‘Sensitivity of Boreal Forests to Possible Climatic Warming’, Climatic Change 7, 45–54 (this issue).
Lamb, H.H.: 1982, Climate History and the Modern World, Methuen, London.
Levins, R.: 1968, Evolution in Changing Environments, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey.
Lorenz, E.N.: 1984, ‘Irregularity: A Fundamental Property of the Atmosphere’, Tellus 36A: 98–110.
Lovelock, J.E.: 1979, Gaia: A New Look at Life on Earth, Oxford University Press, Oxford, U.K.
MacArthur, R.H. and Levins, R.: 1967, ‘The Limiting Similarity, Convergence and Divergence of Coexisting Species’, Am. Nat. 101, 377–385.
Marchetti, C.: 1981, ‘Society as a Learning System: Discovery, Invention, and Innovation Cycles Revisited’, Research Report RR-81–29, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Marchetti, C.: 1983, ‘Innovation: A Vigorous River with High Banks’, Working Paper WP-83–107, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Marchetti, C. and Nakicenovic, N.: 1979, ‘The Dynamics of Energy Systems and the Logistic Substitution Model’, Research Report RR-79–13, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Maunder, W.J.: 1984. ‘Identifying Climate Sensitivity’, in R.W. Kates et al. 1984 in press.
May, R.M.: 1976, ‘Models for Single Populations’, in R.M. May (ed.), Theoretical Ecology: Principles and Applications, W.B. Saunders, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, pp. 4–25.
Namias, J. and Cayan, D.R.: 1981, ‘Large-Scale Air-Sea Interactions and Short-Period Climatic Fluctuations’, Science 214, 869–876.
National Research Council: 1975, Understanding Climatic Change, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
National Research Council: 1983, Changing Climate, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
Nicholson, S.E.: 1982, ‘A Note on Sub-Saharan Rainfall in the Years 1976–1980’, Unpublished Paper, Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts.
Oram, P.: 1985, ‘Sensitivity of Agricultural Production to Climatic Change’, Climatic Change 7, 129–152 (this issue).
Parry, M.L. and Carter, T.R. (eds.): 1984, ‘Assessing the Impact of Climatic Change in Cold Regions’, Summary Report SR-84–1, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Philander, S.G.: 1983, ‘E1 Niño Southern Oscillation Phenomena’, Nature 302, 295–301.
Preston, F.W.: 1960, ‘Time and Space and the Variation of Species’, Ecology 41, 611–627.
Rosenberg, N.J.: 1982, ‘Food and Fiber in a World of Increasing Carbon Dioxide: A Comment’, in W.C. Clark (ed.), Carbon Dioxide Review, Oxford University Press, New York, pp. 324–338.
Rotberg, R.I. and Rabb, T.K. (eds.): 1981, Climate and History, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey.
Santer, B.: 1985, ‘The Use of General Circulation Models in Climate Impact Analysis - A Preliminary Study of the Impacts of a CO2-Induced Climatic Change on West European Agriculture’, Climatic Change 7, 71–93 (this issue).
Schelling, T.C.: 1983, ‘Climatic Change: Implications for Welfare and Policy’, in National Research Council (1983), pp. 449–482.
Schneider, S.H. andThompson, S.L.: 1981, ‘Atmospheric CO2 and Climate: Importance of the Transient Response’, J. Geophys. Res. 86, 3135–3147.
Smagorinsky, J.: 1974, ‘Global Atmospheric Modeling and the Numerical Simulation of Climate’, in W.N. Hess (ed.), Weather and Climate Modification, John Wiley, New York, pp. 633–686.
Southwood, T.R.E.: 1976, ‘Bionomic Strategies and Population Parameters’, in R.M. May (ed.), Theoretical Ecology: Principles and Applications, W.B. Saunders, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, pp. 26–48.
Steele, J.H. (ed.): 1978a, Spatial Pattern in Plankton Communities, Plenum, New York.
Steele, J.H.: 1978b, ‘Some Comments on Plankton Patches’, in Steele (1978a), pp. 1–20.
Steele, J.H.: 1984, ‘A Comparison of Terrestrial and Marine Systems’, Unpublished Paper, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, Woods Hole, Massachusetts.
Stommel, H.: 1963, ‘Varieties of Oceanographic Experience’, Science 139, 572–576.
Stommel, H.: 1965, ‘Some Thoughts About Planning the Kurushio Survey’, in Proceedings of Symposium on the Kurushio Survey, October 29, 1963, Oceanographic Society of Japan, Tokyo.
Vines, R.G.: 1984, ‘Rainfall Patterns in the Eastern United States’, Climatic Change 6, 79–98.
Waggoner, P.E.: 1983, ‘Agriculture and a Climate Changed by More Carbon Dioxide’, in National Research Council (1983), pp. 383–418.
Warrick, R.A.: 1980, ‘Drought in the Great Plains: A Case Study of Research on Climate and Society in the U.S.A.’, in J. Ausubel and A.K. Biswas (eds.), Climatic Constraints and Human Activities, IIASA Proceedings Series, Vol. 10, Pergamon, Oxford, U.K., pp. 93–123.
Webb, T., Kutzbach, J., and Street-Perrott. F.A.: 1985, ‘20,000 Years of Global Climatic Change: Paleoclimatic Research Plan’, in T.F. Malone and J.G. Roederer (eds.), Global Change, Symposium Proceedings of 20th General Assembly Meeting of International Council of Scientific Unions,Ottawa, Canada, September 25, 1984, ICSU Press, Paris.
Wigley, T.M.L., Ingram, J.J., and Farmer, G. (eds.): 1981, Climate and History Studies in Past Climates and Their Impact on Man, Cambridge University Press, London.
Williams, C.B.: 1964, Patterns in the Balance of Nature, Academic Press, London.
Williams, G.D.V.: 1985, ‘Estimated Bioresource Sensitivity to Climatic Change in Alberta, Canada’, Climatic Change 7, 55–69 (this issue).
World Bank: 1982, World Development Report: 1988, Oxford University Press, New York.
World Conservation Strategy: 1980, World Conservation Strategy: Living Resource Conservation for Sustainable Development, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources, Gland, Switzerland.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Clark, W.C. Scales of climate impacts. Climatic Change 7, 5–27 (1985). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00139438
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00139438