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A projection of future sea level

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Abstract

Evidence is reviewed that suggests faster sea-level rise when climate gets warmer. Four processes appear as dominating on a time scale of decades to centuries: melting of mountain glaciers and small ice caps, changes in the mass balance of the large polar ice sheets (Greenland, Antarctica), possible ice-flow instabilities (in particular on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet), and thermal expansion of ocean water.

For a given temperature scenario, an attempt is made to estimate the different contributions. The calculation yields a figure of 9.5 cm of sea-level rise since 1850 AD, which is within the uncertainty range of estimates of the ‘observed’ rise.

A further 33 cm rise is found as most likely for the year 2050, but the uncertainty is very large (σ = 32 cm). The contribution from melting of land ice is of the same order of magnitude as thermal expansion. The mass-balance effects of the major ice sheets tend to cancel to some extent (increasing accumulation on Antarctica, increasing ablation on Greenland). For the year 2100 a value of 66 cm above the present-day stand is found (σ = 57 cm). The estimates of the standard deviation include uncertainty in the temperature scenario, as presented elsewhere in this volume.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography University of Utrecht, Princetonplein 5, Utrecht, The Netherlands

    Johannes Oerlemans

  2. Alfred-Wegener-Institut für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, F.R.G.

    Johannes Oerlemans

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Oerlemans, J. A projection of future sea level. Climatic Change 15, 151–174 (1989). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00138850

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