Limatic variables that control development of stripe rust disease on winter wheat

Abstract

The frequency and severity of the stripe rust disease (caused by Puccinia striiformis) on winter wheat in the Pacific Northwest of the U.S.A. has increased since 1958 in association with climatic variation. From 1968–1979, rust intensities on ‘Gaines’ wheat were most highly correlated with accumulated negative degree days (NDD) between 1 December and 31 January and positive degree days (PDD) between 1 April and 30 June. NDD and PDD were calculated from a 7 °C base. Linear regression equations using NDD alone accounted for 76% of the variation in stripe rust. When NDD and PDD were combined, 88% of the variation in stripe rust was explained. When a growth index (GI), and NDD plus PDD were used as independent variables in a multiple regression analysis, 91% of the variation in disease was explained. Frequency of precipitation in June was correlated with stripe rust intensity, but when it was added to the multiple regression analysis, it explained less than an additional 1% of the variation. The relationships between NDD, PDD, and disease index help to explain why stripe rust was not severe from 1941 to 1957. Methods used in this research should be applicable to similar studies of the effect of climatic variation on other pests.