Real-time application of an oil spill movement prediction system

Abstract

This paper deals with the prediction, in real time, of the motion of experimental oil slicks. The experiments were conducted during September 1983 offshore near Halifax on the east coast of Canada. The objectives of the experiments were (i) to determine the suitability of oil spill dispersants as countermeasures and (ii) the testing and verification of oil spill trajectory models and systems.

The Atmospheric Environment Service (AES) participated in the experiments to test the capability of its oil spill motion prediction system in providing real-time trajectory forecasts. The experiment consisted of three sets of spills. Each set had a control slick and a test slick. Sixteen barrels of crude oil were used in each spill. The test slicks were used to test the effectiveness of various dispersants, the control slicks were used to verify trajectory forecasts.

The spill trajectories and oil weathering information obtained from the system during the experiments demonstrated the relative ease with which the system could handle the required input and provide timely forecasts. The accuracy of these forecast trajectories was confirmed by observations, and their utility was demonstrated by their application in the operational decision-making process.