Abstract
Excitement over declining fertility in the Third World needs caution for several reasons. First, it is now too late to “solve” the world's population problem. Second, the common belief that the birth decline is widespread and is affecting virtually all developing nations goes beyond the data. Third, the notion that birth rates are declining with great speed is not true when the rate is measured against either urbanization or mortality decline. Fourth, a sample of countries indicates that the decline is now slowing rather than accelerating. Fifth, the idea that the declines are due mainly to family planning, and can therefore be assured of continuance in the future, seems unwarranted.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Aird, John S. (1982). “Population studies and population policy in China,” Population and Development Review 8: 267–297.
Arriaga, Eduardo E. (1970). Mortality Decline and Its Demographic Effects in Latin America. Berkeley: Institute of International Studies.
Ayres, Eugene and Charles A. Scarlott (1952). Energy Sources — The Wealth of the World. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Burke, John G. and Marshall C. Eakin (eds.) (1979). Technology and Change. San Francisco: Boyd and Fraser Co.
Coale, Ansley J. and Melvin Zelnik (1963). New Estimates of Fertility and Population in the United States. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Davis, Kingsley (1956). “The amazing decline of mortality in under-developed countries,” American Economic Review 46: 305–318.
Davis, Kingsley (1967). “Population policy: will current programs succeed?” Science 158: 730–739.
Davis, Kingsley (1971). World Urbanization 1950–1970. Berkeley: University of California, Institute of International Studies; Westport, Connecticut: Greenwood Press.
Davis, Kingsley (1972). “The changing balance of births and deaths,” in Harrison Brown and Edward Hutchings Jr., (eds.) Are Our Descendents Doomed? Technological Change and Population Growth. New York: Viking Press.
Demerath, Nicholas J. (1976). Birth Control and Foreign Policy: The Alternatives to Family Planning. New York: Harper and Row.
Dumond, Don E. (1975). “The limitation of human population: a natural history,” Science 187: 713–721.
Himes, Norman E. (1936). Medical History of Contraception. Baltimore: Williams & Wilkens Co.
Howell, Nancy (1979). Demography of the Dobe !Kung. New York: Academic Press.
Kuznets, Simon (1971). Economic Growth of Nations. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.
National Academy of Sciences (1971). Rapid Population Growth. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Orborne, Fairfield (1953). The Limits of the Earth. Boston: Little, Brown, and Company.
Press, Frank and Raymond Siever (1978). Earth. 2nd ed. San Francisco: Wm. H. Freeman Co.
Stolnitz, George (1955, 1956). “A century of international mortality trends,” Population Studies 9: 24–25; 10: 17–42.
Tsui, Amy Ong and Donald J. Bogue (1978). “Declining world fertility: trends, causes, implications,” Population Bulletin Vol. 33, No. 4. Washington, D.C.: Population Reference Bureau.
United Nations (1967). World Energy Supplies. Statistical Papers, Series J, No. 10.
United Nations (1979). Demographic Yearbook, Historical Supplement. New York: United Nations.
United Nations (1980). World Population Trends and Policies: 1979 Monitoring Report. New York: United Nations.
United Nations (1981). World Population Prospect as Assessed in 1980. New York: United Nations.
United Nations (1982). Demographic Yearbook 1980. New York: United Nations.
United States (1975). Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970. Washington, D.C.: Bureau of the Census.
United States (1978). Vital Statistics of the United States 1978, Vol. II—Section 5. “Life Tables.” National Center for Heath Statistics.
United States (1981a). Demographic Estimates for Countries with a Population of 10 Million or More: 1981. Washington, D.C.: Bureau of the Census.
United States (1981b). Statistical Abstract of the United States 1981. Washington, D.C.: Bureau of the Census.
United States (1982). “Advance report of final natality statistics, 1980,” Monthly Vital Statistics Report, Vol. 3, No. 8, Supplement. National Center for Health Statistics.
World Bank (1982). World Development Report 1982. New York: Oxford University Press.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
Revised version of a paper given at the annual meeting of the American Sociological Association, San Francisco, September 7, 1982.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Davis, K. Declining birth rates and growing populations. Popul Res Policy Rev 3, 61–75 (1984). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00123010
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00123010