Abstract
Claim for periodicity in the crater formation rate is reinvestigated using a criterion proposed by Broadbent, and data sets of Rampino and Stothers and of Grieve are shown to satisfy the periodicity criterion (P ≃ 30 Myr).
On the other hand, currently observed impactors are mainly asteroids, while long and short periodic comets whose fluxes may vary by external disturbances occupy only a small fraction. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, constraints are obtained for the dispersion Q(Myr) from an exact periodicity and for the periodic components (F tp) in the signals for their periodicity to be detected. It is found that for σ = 5, 6 and 7 Myr, F tp, would have to be 40% or greater, 60% or greater and 80% or greater, respectively. These constraints are used to discuss whether the giant molecular cloud perturbations can give rise to the periodicity in the impact events. The amplitude of the solar Z-motion need to be some 100pc for σ = 6 Myr, which requires the periodic component (SP and LP comets, if the former originate from the latter) to be 60%, while for σ = 7 Myr, the periodic component need to be 80%. The GMC perturbation model consistent with the periodicity appears to be the one where the amplitude is 100pc and the periodic component - 60% of the impactors. If SP comets mainly originate from a source such as the hypothetical Kuiper belt, the GMC perturbation would not be consistent with the periodicity.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alvarez, W. & Muller, R. A.: 1984, Nature 308, 718
Bailey, M. E: 1985, in Carusi, A. & Valsecchi, G., ed(s)., Dynamics of Comets, Reidel, Dordrecht
Bailey, M. E.: 1986, Nature 324, 350
Bailey, M. E., Wilkinson, D. A. & Wolfendale, A. W.: 1987, Mon. Not. R. Astr. Soc. 227, 863
Bailey, M. E., S. M. M. Clube, & Napier, W. M.: 1990, Origin of Comets, Pergamon Press, Oxford
Broadbent, S. R.: 1955, Biometrica 42, 45
Broadbent, S. R.: 1956, Biometrica 43, 32
Byl, J.: 1986, Earth, Moon and Planets 36, 263
Clube, S. V. M. & Napier, W. M.: 1982, Q. Jl. R. Astr. Soc. 23, 45
Clube, S. V. M. & Napier, W. M.: 1986, in Smoluchowski, R., Barcall, J. N. & Mathews, M. S., ed(s)., The Galaxy and the Solar System, Univ. Arizona Press, Tucson
Duncan, M., Quinn, T. & Tremaine, S.: 1987, Astron. J. 94, 1330
Everhart, E.: 1979, in Duncombe, R. L., ed(s)., The Dynamics of the Solar System, Reidel, Dordrecht
Grieve, R. A. F.: 1987, Ann. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 15, 245
Heissler, J. & Tremaine, S.: 1986, Icarus 65, 13
Hills, J. G.: 1981, Astron. J. 86, 1730
Matese, J.J. and Whitmire, D.P.: 1986, Icarus 65, 37
Napier, W. M. & Humphries, C. M.: 1986, Mon. Not. R. Astr. Soc. 221, 105
Napier, W. M.: 1989, in Clube, S.V.M., ed(s)., In Catastrophes and Evolution, Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford
Olsson-Steel, D.: 1987, Mon. Not. R. Astr. Soc. 227, 501
Quinn, T., Tremaine, S. & Duncan, M.: 1990, Astrophys. J. 355, 667
Rampino, M. R. & Stothers, R. B.: 1986, in Smoluchowski, R., Barcall, J. N. & Mathews, M. S., ed(s)., The Galaxy and the Solar System, Univ. Arizona Press, Tucson
Raup, D. M. & Sepkoski, J. J.: 1984, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 301, 801
Russel, H. N.: 1920, Astron. J. 33, 49
Scoville, N. Z. & Sanders, D. B.: 1986, in Smoluchowski, R., Barcall, J. N. & Mathews, M. S., ed(s)., The Galaxy and the Solar System, Univ. Arizona Press, Tucson
Seyfert, C. K. & Sirkin, L. A.: 1979, Earth History and Plate Tectonics, Harper & Row, New York
Shoemaker, E. M. & Wolfe, R. F.: 1986, in Smoluchowski, R., Barcall, J. N. & Mathews, M. S., ed(s)., The Galaxy and the Solar System, Univ. Arizona Press, Tucson
Stagg, & Bailey, M. E.: 1989, Mon. Not. R. Astr. Soc. 241, 507
Stothers, R. B.: 1985, Nature 317, 338
Thaddeus, P.: 1986, in Smoluchowski, R., Barcall, J. N. & Mathews, M. S., ed(s)., The Galaxy and the Solar System, Univ. Arizona Press, Tucson
Torbett, M. V.: 1986, Mon. Not. R. Astr. Soc. 187, 445
Valtonen, M. J.: 1983, Observatory 103, 1
Weissman, P. R.: 1986, Bull. Am. Asir. Soc. 18, 840
Weissman, P. R.: 1988, Paper presented at conference on Global Catastrophes in Earth History, Utah
Wolfendale, A. W.: 1989, in Clube, S. V., ed(s)., Catastrophes and Evolution, Oxford Univ. Press., Oxford
Yabushita, S.: 1979, Mon. Not. R. Astr. Soc. 187, 445
Yabushita, S.: 1983a, Mon. Not. R. Astr. Soc. 204, 1185
Yabushita, S.: 1983, Astrophys. Space. Sci. 89, 159
Yabushita, S.: 1989, Astron. J. 97, 262
Yabushita, S.: 1991, Mon, Not. R. Astr. Soc. 250, 481
Yabushita, S. & Tsujii, T.: 1991a, Mon. Not. R. Astr. Soc. 248, 34
Yabushita, S. & Tsujii, T.: 1991b, Mon. Not. R. Astr. Soc. 252, 151
Yeomans, D. K.: 1991, Astron. J. 101, 1920
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Yabushita, S. Periodicity in the crater formation rate and implications for astronomical modeling. Celestial Mech Dyn Astr 54, 161–178 (1992). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00049550
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00049550