Prediction of earthquake occurrence for a new nuclear power plant in India using probabilistic models

  • Vansittee Dilli Rao
  • Deepankar Choudhury
Technical Paper


This paper has investigated the seismic risk in terms of earthquake occurrence in the vicinity of a newly proposed nuclear power plant (NPP) site in India. In this investigation, an extreme range of the risk has been estimated for large (Mw ≥ 6) and great (Mw ≥ 7 and 8) earthquakes by varying influencing parameters, such as average recurrence interval, standard deviation, probability distributions and time interval. Gutenberg–Richter and bounded Gutenberg–Richter recurrence relations were used to calculate the return periods of considered magnitudes. Three probability distributions: Weibull, lognormal, and Poisson models were chosen for the analysis. In each model, the standard deviation was varied from one-third to one-half of the mean. Results were presented in terms of cumulative probability and conditional probability for the next 15- and the 50-year time intervals from 2019. It has been highlighted that Mw ≥ 6 and Mw ≥ 7 are more likely to occur during the service life of the NPP. Moreover, this study can be used as an input for liquefaction seismic hazard assessment and in other earthquake-resistant design of nuclear power plant components for the new NPP.


NPP Cumulative probabilities Conditional probabilities Probability distribution Risk Earthquake 



Authors want to acknowledge the financial support received through sponsored research project Grant Number 36(2)/15/04/2016-BRNS/36004-36029 (16BRNS012) from the Board of Research in Nuclear Sciences, Department of Atomic Energy, Government of India, to carry out the research work presented in this paper.


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© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Civil EngineeringIndian Institute of Technology BombayMumbaiIndia
  2. 2.Department of Civil EngineeringIndian Institute of Technology Bombay, IIT BombayPowai, MumbaiIndia
  3. 3.Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research (AcSIR), CSIR CampusChennaiIndia

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