Advertisement

Spatial Demography

, Volume 6, Issue 2, pp 89–120 | Cite as

Evolution of Life Expectancy at Birth in French Départements Over the Period 1833–1982

  • Jesús J. Sánchez-Barricarte
  • Patricia Carracedo
  • Adina Iftimi
  • Ana Debón
  • Francisco Montes
Article
  • 163 Downloads

Abstract

This paper deals with spatial aspects of trends in life expectancy at birth in the French metropolitan départements over the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Data from the censuses conducted from 1833 to 1982 were used to calculate the life expectancy at birth for both sexes togheter, \(e_0\). The overall fertility index (\(I_f\)), marital fertility index (\(I_g\)) and nuptiality index (\(I_m\)) were also calculated for each 5-year period within the same time span. The analysis has two facets: a first, descriptive part in which we establish clusters of départements with similar or different patterns of evolution over the period above mentioned; and a second part in which the effect of covariables in changes in \(e_0\) are examined. In addition their coefficients were interpreted including the direct and spatial spillover effects. Unlike earlier studies, in which a spatio-temporal analysis was performed, the time function showing changes in \(e_0\) is reduced to a single value which measures the distance or affinity between the functions of time in each département, which enables us to carry out an exploratory spatial data analysis and apply spatial econometric models.

Keywords

Life expectancy Spatial autocorrelation Exploratory spatial data analysis Spatial regression 

Notes

Acknowledgements

Jesús J. Sánchez-Barricarte is supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of Spain (grant CSO2012-31206) and Autonomous Community of Madrid (grant H2015/HUM-3321). Patricia Carracedo and Ana Debón are supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (grant MTM2013-45381-P). Adina Iftimi is supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte (grant FPU12/04 531) and Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (grant MTM2016-78917-R). Francisco Montes is supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (grants MTM2013-45381-P, MTM2016-78917-R).

References

  1. Angeles, L. (2010). Demographic transitions: Analyzing the effects of mortality on fertility. Population Economics, 23, 99–120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Angeles, L. (2015). Tracking how mortality affects fertility along the demographic transition. In 11th European historical economics society conference 2015, Pisa, Italy, 4–5 September 2015.Google Scholar
  3. Anselin, L. (1988). Spatial econometrics: Methods and models. Dordrecht: Kluwer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Anselin, L. (1995). Local indicators of spatial association LISA. Geographical Analysis, 27(2), 93–115.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Bálint, L. (2012). Spatial gender differences in life expectancy at birth. Regional Statistics, 2(1), 108–128.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Balk, D., Pullum, T., Storeygard, A., Greenwell, F., & Neuman, M. (2004). A spatial analysis of childhood mortality in West Africa. Population, Space and Place, 10(2), 175–216. doi: 10.1002/psp.328.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Barbieri, M. (2013). Mortality in France by département. Population, 68(3), 375–417.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Bivand, R. (2012). spdep: Spatial dependence: Weighting schemes, statistics and models. R package version 0.5-53. http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=spdep.
  9. Blayo, C., & Egidi, V. (1970). Mortalité selon les départements en 1961–1963. Population, 25(2), 410–420.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Bonneuil, N. (1997). Transformation of the French demographic landscape 1806–1906. Oxford: Clarendon Press. http://table_mortalite_bonneuil.site.ined.fr/en/presentation/.Google Scholar
  11. Brazil, N. (2015). Spatial variation in the Hispanic Paradox: Mortality rates in new and established hispanic US destinations. Population, Space and Place.. doi: 10.1002/psp.1968.Google Scholar
  12. Caselli, G., & Egidi, V. (1986). Cadre général de lanalyse géographique. In Vallin, J., Meslé, F. (eds). Les causes de décs en France de 1925 1978. INED, Cahier no. 115., Paris.Google Scholar
  13. Caselli, G., & Vallin, J. (2002). Geographic variations of mortality. In I. I. Volume, G. Caselli, & J. Vallin (Eds.), Demography: Analysis and synthesis (pp. 207–234). Paris: INED.Google Scholar
  14. Castro, M. (2007). Spatial demography: An opportunity to improve policy making at diverse decision levels. Population Research and Policy Review, 26(5), 477–509.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Cleland, J. (2001). The effects of improved survival on fertility: A reassessment. Population and Development Review, 27(Supplement), 60–92.Google Scholar
  16. Cliff, A., & Ord, J. (1973). Spatial autocorrelation. London: Pion.Google Scholar
  17. Coale, A. & Watkins, S. (1986). The decline of fertility in Europe. Princeton: Princeton University Press. http://opr.princeton.edu/archive/pefp/.
  18. Daguet, F. (2005). Données de démographie régionale 1954 1999 (p. 49). Insee Résultats, Société.Google Scholar
  19. Doepke, M. (2005). Child mortality and fertility decline: Does the Barro-Becker model fit the facts? Journal of Population Economics, 18(2), 337–366.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Draper, N. R., & Smith, H. (1998). Applied regression analysis (3rd ed.). New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
  21. Dyson, T. (2010). Population and development: The demographic transition. London: Zed Books.Google Scholar
  22. Elhorst, J. P. (2014). Spatial econometrics: From cross-sectional data to spatial panels. Heidelberg: Springer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Fernández-Villaverde, J. (2001). Was Malthus right? Economic growth and population dynamics. Working Paper, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.Google Scholar
  24. Florax, R., & Yoon, M. J. (1996). Simple diagnostic tests for spatial dependence. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 26, 77–104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Gaimard, M. (2005). Les disparités géographiques de la mortalité en France depuis la Secunde Guerre mondiale. In C. Bergouignan, et al. (Eds.), La population de la France. Évolutions démographiques depuis 1946 (Vol. II, pp. 497–538). Bordeaux: CUDEP.Google Scholar
  26. Galloway, P., Lee, R., & Hammel, E. (1998). Infant mortality and the fertility transition. In M. Montgomery & B. Cohen (Eds.), From death to birth: Mortality decline and reproductive change (pp. 182–226). Washington, DC: National Academy Press.Google Scholar
  27. Goodwin-White, J. (2015). Is social mobility spatial? Characteristics of immigrant metros and second generation outcomes: 19401970 and 19702000. Population, Space and Place. doi: 10.1002/psp.1960.Google Scholar
  28. Haandrikman, K., Harmsen, C., van Wissen, L. J. G., & Hutter, I. (2008). Geography matters: Patterns of spatial homogamy in the Netherlands. Population, Space and Place, 14, 387–405. doi: 10.1002/psp.487.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Haines, M. (1998). The relationship between infant and child mortality and fertility: Some historical and contemporary evidence from the United States. In M. Montgomery & B. Cohen (Eds.), From death to birth: Mortality decline and reproductive change (pp. 227–253). Washington, DC: National Academy Press.Google Scholar
  30. Hanal, J. (1965). European marriage patterns in perspective. In D. Glass & D. Eversley (Eds.), Population in history: Essays in historical demography (pp. 101–43). London: Edward Arnold.Google Scholar
  31. Herzer, D., Strulik, H., & Vollmer, S. (2012). The long-run determinants of fertility: One century of demographic change 1900–1999. Journal of Economic Growth, 17, 357–385.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Kesztenbaum, L., & Rosenthal, J. L. (2014). Income versus sanitation: Mortality decline in Paris, 1880–1914. PSE Working Papers no. 2014-26.Google Scholar
  33. Knodel, J. (1974). The decline of fertility in Germany, 1871–1939. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  34. Kulu, H. (2012). Spatial variation in divorce and separation: Compositional or contextual effects? Population, Space and Place, 18, 1–15. doi: 10.1002/psp.671.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Leclerc, A., Fassin, D., Granjean, H., Kaminski, M., & Lang, T. (Eds.). (2010). Les inégalités sociales de santé (p. 448). La Découverte: INSERM.Google Scholar
  36. LeSage, J., & Pace, R. K. (2009). Introduction to spatial econometrics. Boca Rato, FL: Chapman & Hall/CRC.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Lesthaeghe, R. (1977). The decline of Belgian fertility, 1800–1970. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  38. Lincot, L., & Lutinier, B. (1998). Les évolutions démographiques départementales et régionales entre 1975 et 1994. INSEE-RESULTATS 600-601, Démographie et société, pp. 67–68.Google Scholar
  39. Malczewski, J. (2010). Exploring spatial autocorrelation of life expectancy in Poland with global and local statistics. GeoJournal, 75(1), 79–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Mason, K. (1997). Explaining fertility transitions. Demography, 34(4), 443–454.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Matthews, S., & Parker, D. (2013). Progress in spatial demography. Demographic Research, 28, 271–311.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Meslé, F., & Vallin, J. (1998). Évolution et variations géographiques de la surmortalité masculine. Du paradoxe franais la logique russe. Population, 53(6), 1079–1101.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Moran, P. A. P. (1950a). Notes on continuous stochastic phenomena. Biometrika, 37, 17–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Moran, P. A. P. (1950b). A test for the serial dependence of residuals. Biometrika, 37, 178–181.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Murphy, T. (2009). Old habits die hard (sometimes): What can deprtement heterogeneity tell us about the French fertility decline?. Thecnical report, MIMEO.Google Scholar
  46. Murtin, F. (2013). The long-term determinants of the demographic transition, 1870–2000. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(2), 617–631.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Nizard, A., & Prioux, F. (1975). La mortalité départementale en France. Population, 30(4–5), 781–824.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Noin, D. (1973). Géographie démographique de la France. Paris: PUF.Google Scholar
  49. Norman, P., & Riva, M. (2012). Population health across space and time: The geographical harmonisation of the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study for England and Wales. Population, Space and Place, 18, 483–502. doi: 10.1002/psp.1705.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. O’brien, R. M. (2007). A caution regarding rules of thumb for variance inflation factors. Quality & Quantity, 41(5), 673–690.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. O’brien, R. M. (2016). Dropping highly collinear variables from a model: Why it typically is not a good idea. Social Science Quarterly. doi: 10.1111/ssqu.12273.Google Scholar
  52. Omran, A. R. (1998). The epidemiologic transition theory revisited thirty years later. World Health Statistics Quarterly, 51, 99–119.Google Scholar
  53. Padilla, C. M., Deguen, S., Lalloue, B., Blanchard, O., Beaugard, C., Troude, F., et al. (2013). Cluster analysis of social and environment inequalities of infant mortality. A spatial study in small areas revealed by local disease mapping in France. Science of the Total Environment, 454–455, 433–441.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Padilla, C. M., Kihal-Talantikit, W., Vieira, V. M., & Deguen, S. (2016). City-specific spatiotemporal infant and neonatal mortality clusters: Links with socioeconomic and air pollution spatial patterns in France. International Journal of Enviromental Research and Public Health, 13, 624.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Reher, D., & Sanz-Gimeno, A. (2007). Rethinking historical reproductive change: Insights from longitudinal data for a Spanish town. Population and Development Review, 33(4), 703–727.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Salem, G., Rican, S., & Jougla, É. (2000). Atlas de la santé en France, Vol. 1 Les causes de décs. Montrouge: John Libbey Eurotext.Google Scholar
  57. Sánchez-Barricarte, J. J. (2017). The long-term determinants of marital fertility in the developed world (19th and 20th centuries): The role of welfare policies. Demographic Research, 36, 1255–1298. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2017.36.42.
  58. Schellekens, J., & van Poppel, F. (2012). Marital fertility decline in the Netherlands: Child mortality, real wages, and unemployment, 1860–1939. Demography, 49, 965–988.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Sparks, P. J., & Sparks, C. S. (2010). An application of spatially autoregressive models to the study of US county mortality rates. Population, Space and Place, 16, 465–481. doi: 10.1002/psp.564.Google Scholar
  60. Tobler, W. (1970). A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region. Economic Geography, 46(2), 234–240.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Tsimbos, C., Kalogirou, S., & Verropoulou, G. (2014). Estimating spatial differentials in life expectancy in greece at local authority level. Population, Space and Place, 20, 646–663. doi: 10.1002/psp.1800.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. Tsimbos, C., Kotsifakis, G., Verropoulou, G., & Kalogirou, S. (2011). Life expectancy in Greece 1991–2007: Regional variations and spatial clustering. Journal of Maps, 7(1), 280–290.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Van de Kaa, D. (1996). Anchored narratives: The story and findings of the half a century of research into the determinants of fertility. Population Studies, 50(3), 389–432.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Van de Walle, F. (1986). Infant mortality and the European demographic transition. In A. Coale & S. Watkins (Eds.), The decline of fertility in Europe (pp. 201–233). Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  65. Van Poppel, F., Reher, D., Sanz-Gimeno, A., Snchez-Domnguez, M., & Beekink, E. (2012). Mortality decline and reproductive change during the Dutch demographic transition: Revisiting a traditional debate with new data. Demographic Research, 27, 299–338.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Vitali, A., & Billari, F. C. (2015). Changing determinants of low fertility and diffusion: A spatial analysis for Italy. Population, Space and Place. doi: 10.1002/psp.1998.Google Scholar
  67. Voss, P. (2007a). Demography as a spatial social science. Population Research and Policy Review, 26(5–6), 457–476.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. Voss, P. (2007b). Introduction to the special issue on spatial demography. Population Research and Policy Review, 26(5–6), 455–476.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. Wachter, K. W. (2005). Spatial demography. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 102(43), 15299–15300.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  70. Ward, M. D., & Gleditsch, K. S. (Eds.). (2008). Spatial regression models. Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Publications.Google Scholar
  71. Watkins, S. (1986). Conclusions. In A. Coale & S. Watkins (Eds.), The decline of fertility in Europe (pp. 420–449). Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  72. Weeks, J. (2004). The role of spatial analysis in demographic research. In M. Goodchild & D. Janelle (Eds.), Spatially integrated social science (pp. 381–399). New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  73. Windenberger, F., Rican, S., Jougla, E., & Rey, G. (2012). Spatiotemporal association between deprivation and mortality: Trends in France during the nineties. The European Journal of Public Health, 22(3), 347–353.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  74. Wrigley, E. (1978). Marital fertility in seventeenth-century Colyton: A note. Economic History Review, 31(3), 429–436.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  75. Yang, T.-C., Noah, A. J., & Shoff, C. (2015). Exploring geographic variation in US mortality rates using a spatial Durbin approach. Population, Space and Place, 21, 18–37. doi: 10.1002/psp.1809.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing AG 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Social AnalysisCarlos III University of MadridGetafeSpain
  2. 2.Centro de Gestión de la Calidad y del CambioUniversitat Politècnica de ValènciaValenciaSpain
  3. 3.Dpto. de Estadística e Investigación OperativaUniversidad de ValenciaValenciaSpain

Personalised recommendations