Advertisement

Sustainable Water Resources Management

, Volume 5, Issue 4, pp 1781–1789 | Cite as

Statistical analysis of rainfall in Bihar

  • Mohammad ZakwanEmail author
  • Zeenat Ara
Original Article
  • 23 Downloads

Abstract

Availability of water is largely dependent on the amount of precipitation received by an area. Fluctuations in precipitation pattern exercises significant impact on the livelihood of the people especially in areas where rainfed agriculture has predominance. In the present study, temporal variation of rainfall in Bihar, India has been analysed. Trend analysis for monthly, seasonal as well as annual rainfall series for the duration of 1950–2016 was performed using non-parametric Mann–Kendall. Parametric linear regression test was also used to check the trends. Deficiency in yearly total rainfall was identified using Index of Wetness and standardized rainfall anomaly. Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) was also estimated to check the monthly distribution of rainfall. Both parametric and non-parametric tests predict declining trend in rainfall for almost all the months except for the month of May, which is reflected as a decline in total annual rainfall in the study area. Analysis of rainfall data revealed very high intra and inter annual variability [average coefficient of variation (CV) = 91.26]. PCI values too revealed very high nonuniformity of rainfall. Analyses of data confirmed high concentration (84%) of rainfall in monsoon months. Rainfall depth with 90% dependability has been found to be over 180 mm and 160 mm for the months of July and August, respectively. Significant decline has been observed in total rainfall over the last three decades (1986–2016) highlighting the need of rainwater harvesting and management to avoid acute shortage of water in near future.

Keywords

Bihar Rainfall Monsoon Inter annual variability PCI 

Notes

Acknowledgements

Authors are thankful to the reviewers for their valuable comments.

References

  1. Agnew CT, Chappel A (1999) Drought in the Sahel. GeoJournal 48(4):299–311CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Ahmed R, Karmakar S (1993) Arrival and withdrawal dates of the summer monsoon in Bangladesh. Int J Climatol 137(7):727–740CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Anil AP, Ramesh H (2017) Analysis of climate trend and effect of land use land cover change on Harangi streamflow, South India: a case study. Sustain Water Res Manag 3(3):257–267CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Arvind G, Kumar PA, Karthi SG, Suribabu CR (2017) Statistical Analysis of 30 Years Rainfall Data: A Case Study. In: IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, vol 80, no 1. IOP Publishing, Bristol, p 012067Google Scholar
  5. Asfaw A, Simane B, Hassen A, Bantider A (2018) Variability and time series trend analysis of rainfall and temperature in northcentral Ethiopia: a case study in Woleka sub-basin. Weather Clim Extremes 19(2018):29–41CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Awchi TA, Kalyana MM (2017) Meteorological drought analysis in northern Iraq using SPI and GIS. Sustain Water Res Manag 3(4):451–463CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Belayneh A, Adamowski J, Khalil B (2016) Short-term SPI drought forecasting in the Awash River Basin in Ethiopia using wavelet transforms and machine learning methods. Sustain Water Res Manag 2(1):87–101CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Bhatla R, Tripathi A (2014) The study of rainfall and temperature variability over Varanasi. Int J Earth Atmos Sci 1(2):90–94Google Scholar
  9. De US, Dube RK, Rao GP (2005) Extreme weather events over India in the last 100 years. J Ind Geophys Union 9(3):173–187Google Scholar
  10. Dhar ON, Nandargi S (1998) Rainfall magnitudes that have not been exceeded in India. Weather 53(5):145–151CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Giri RK, Pradhan D, Sen AK (2015) Rainfall comparison of automatic weather stations and manual observations over Bihar region. Int J Phys Math Sci 5(2):1–22Google Scholar
  12. Goswami BN, Venugopal V, Sengupta D, Madhusoodanan MS, Xavier PK (2006) Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment. Science 314(5804):1442–1445CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Hare W (2003) Assessment of Knowledge on Impacts of Climate Change, Contribution to the Specification of Art, 2 of the UNFCCC. WBGUGoogle Scholar
  14. Henck AC, Montgomery DR, Katharine HW, Liang C (2010) Monsoon control of effective discharge, Yunnan and Tibet. Geology 38:975–978CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Huntington TG (2006) Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: review and synthesis. J Hydrol 319(1):83–95CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Iofin ZK (2015) Variability of water resources and water balance. Sustain Water Res Manag 1(2):155–156CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Jain SK, Kumar V (2012) Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India. Curr Sci 102:37–49Google Scholar
  18. Joshi MK, Pandey AC (2011) Trend and spectral analysis of rainfall over India during 1901–2000. J Geophys Res.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014966 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Karmakar S, Khatun A (1995) Variability and probabilistic estimates of rainfall extremes in Bangladesh during the southwest monsoon season. Mausam 46(1):47–56Google Scholar
  20. Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods. Griffin & Co, LondonGoogle Scholar
  21. Kumar V, Jain SK, Singh Y (2010) Analysis of long-term rainfall trends in India. Hydrol Sci J 55(4):484–496CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Muzzammil M, Alam J, Zakwan M (2015) An optimization technique for estimation of rating curve parameters. In: Proceedings of national symposium on hydrology. pp 234–240Google Scholar
  24. Muzzammil M, Alam J, Zakwan M (2018) A spreadsheet approach for prediction of rating curve parameters. In: Singh V, Yadav S, Yadava R (eds) Hydrologic modeling. Water science and technology library, vol 81. Springer, SingaporeGoogle Scholar
  25. Nandargi SS, Aman K (2018) Precipitation concentration changes over India during 1951 to 2015. Sci Res Essays 13(3):14–26CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. New M, Todd M, Hulme M, Jones P (2001) Precipitation measurements and trends in the 20th century. Int J Climatol 21(15):1889–1922CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Nnaji CC, Mama CN, Ukpabi O (2016) Hierarchical analysis of rainfall variability across Nigeria. Theor Appl Climatol 123(1–2):171–184CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Nyatuame M, Owusu-Gyimah V, Ampiaw F (2014) Statistical analysis of rainfall trend for Volta Region in Ghana. Int J Atmos Sci.  https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/203245 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Oliver JE (1980) Monthly precipitation distribution: a comparative index. Prof Geogr 32(3):300309CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Pandey M, Zakwan M, Sharma PK, Ahmad Z (2018) Multiple linear regression and genetic algorithm approaches to predict temporal scour depth near circular pier in non-cohesive sediment. ISH J Hydraul Eng.  https://doi.org/10.1080/09715010.2018.1457455 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Pohlert T (2017) Non-parametric trend tests and change-point detection. CC BY-ND, 4Google Scholar
  32. Rai SK, Singh KA (2009) Rainfall variability and probability for crop planning at Madhepura in Bihar. J Agrometeorol 11(1):42–46Google Scholar
  33. Randall DA, Wood RA, Bony S, Colman R, Fichefet T, Fyfe J, Stouffer RJ (2007) Climate models and their evaluation. Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (FAR). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 589–662Google Scholar
  34. Sikka DR (1999) Monsoon droughts, Joint COLA/CARE Tech. Rep. No. 2,269Google Scholar
  35. Subramanya K (2008) Engineering hydrology, 3rd edn. Tata McGraw-Hill, New Delhi, pp 13–52Google Scholar
  36. Trenberth KE (2011) Changes in precipitation with climate change. Clim Res 47(1/2):123–138CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Yue S, Pilon P, Cavadias G (2002) Power of the Mann–Kendall test and the Spearman’s rho test for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological time series. J Hydrol 259:254–271CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Zakwan M (2016) Estimation of runoff using optimization technique. Water Energy Int 59(8):42–44Google Scholar
  39. Zakwan M, Muzzammil M (2016) Optimization approach for hydrologic channel routing. Water Energy Int 59(3):66–69Google Scholar
  40. Zakwan M, Ahmad Z, Sharief SMV (2018) Magnitude-frequency analysis for suspended sediment transport in Ganga River. J Hydrol Eng.  https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001671 CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Civil Engineering DepartmentIIT RoorkeeRoorkeeIndia
  2. 2.Civil Engineering Department MANUUHyderabadIndia

Personalised recommendations