Signalling Desistance? Crime Attitudes, Perceptions of Punishment, and Exposure to Criminogenic Models
To examine individual perceptions of the consequences of crime, the role of criminogenic models, and whether rational choice and criminal social capital are informative of desistance during emerging adulthood.
Data from the Incarcerated Serious and Violent Young Offender Study were used to examine the relationship between different aspects of rational choice theories of desistance, criminogenic environment, and offending trajectories measured between ages 12 and 30, calculated using semi-parametric group-based modeling. Offending trajectories were then modeled using multinomial logistic regression.
Trajectory analyses identified three desistance trajectories and three non-desistance trajectories. The strongest predictors of desistance trajectories included variables that relate to rational choices that considered the consequences of crime.
Rational choice and life course perspectives on desistance as complementary, with sources of informal social control operating in a manner that, along with other factors, helps structure an individual’s consideration of, and importance placed on, the consequences of crime.
KeywordsCriminogenic environment Desistance Rational choice Trajectories
This work was supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (410-2004-1875).
- 1.Aguinis, H. (1995). Statistical power with moderated multiple regression in management research. Journal of Management, 21(6), 1141–1158.Google Scholar
- 10.Corrado, R. R., & McCuish, E. C. (2018). Key findings and operational lessons in the measurement of psychopathy within the Incarcerated Serious and Violent Young Offender Study. In M. DeLisi (Ed.), The Routledge international handbook of psychopathy and crime. New York, NY: Routledge.Google Scholar
- 13.Densley, J. A., & Pyrooz, D. C. (2017). A signaling perspective on disengagement from gangs. Justice Quarterly. https://doi.org/10.1080/07418825.2017.1357743.
- 18.Greene, W. H. (2000). Econometric analysis (4th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.Google Scholar
- 20.Kennedy, P. (2003). A guide to econometrics (5th ed.). Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishing.Google Scholar
- 23.Laub, J., & Sampson, R. J. (2003). Shared beginnings, divergent lives: delinquent boys to age 70. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
- 31.McFadden, D. (1974). Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior. In P. Zarembka (Ed.), Frontiers in econometrics (pp. 105–142). New York, NY: Academic Press.Google Scholar
- 32.McFadden, D. (1981). Econometric models of probabilistic choice. In C. F. Manski & D. McFadden (Eds.), Structural analysis of discrete data using econometric applications (pp. 198–272). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
- 38.Paternoster, R. (2010). How much do we really know about criminal deterrence? The Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, 100(3), 765–824.Google Scholar
- 39.Paternoster, R., & Bushway, S. (2009). Desistance and the “feared self”: toward an identity theory of criminal desistance. The Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, 99(4), 1103–1156.Google Scholar
- 41.Piquero, A. R. (2008). Taking stock of developmental trajectories of criminal activity over the life course. In Liberman, A. (Ed.), The long view of crime: A synthesis of longitudinal research (pp. 23 - 78). New York, NY: Springer.Google Scholar
- 44.Pratt, T. C., Cullen, F. T., Blevins, K. R., Daigle, L. E., & Madensen, T. D. (2006). The empirical status of deterrence theory: a meta-analysis. In F. T. Cullen, J. P. Wright, & K. R. Blevins (Eds.), Taking stock: The status of criminological theory (15th ed., pp. 367–396). New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers.Google Scholar
- 45.Rolison, M. R., & Scherman, A. (2003). College student risk-taking from three perspectives. Adolescence, 38(152), 689–704.Google Scholar
- 48.Sampson, R. J., & Laub, J. H. (1997). A life-course theory of cumulative disadvantage and the stability of delinquency. In Thornberry, T. P. (Ed.), Developmental theories of crime and delinquency, Advances in Criminological Theory, Volume 7 (pp. 133-161). New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction.Google Scholar
- 51.Sherman, L. W., & Eck, J. E. (2002). Policing for prevention. In L. W. Sherman, D. Farrington, & B. Welsh (Eds.), Evidence based crime prevention (pp. 295–329). New York, NY: Routledge.Google Scholar
- 55.Statistics Canada. (2013). Aboriginal peoples in Canada: First Nations people, Métis and Inuit. Ottawa, ON: Statistics Canada.Google Scholar
- 56.Stouthamer-Loeber, M., Loeber, R., Stallings, R., & Lacourse, E. (2008). Desistance from and persistence in offending. In R. Loeber, D. P. Farrington, M. Stouthamer-Loeber, & H. R. White (Eds.), Violence and serious theft: Development and prediction from childhood to adulthood (pp. 269–308). New York, NY: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- 58.Wooldridge, J. M. (2002). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar